TrendFinder Reporting (5/14/12)

By Paul Bessire and PredictionMachine.com Analytics Coordinator, John Ewing

Monday, May 14 at 11:55 PM ET

Dave Tuley, PredictionMachine.com “Vegas Beat” contributor, was a guest last week on Chad Millman’s Behind the Bets podcast at ESPN.com. Their conversation revolved around the current state of the sports betting industry and specifically about transparency in the records of sporting betting services. In the wake of multiple breaking stories (a great, interesting read from the consistently spot-on BeyondtheBets blog in the industry (chances are that, if you have purchased picks from touts like those described here, you were not dealing with a real person and the person writing the pick may have even also been writing the opposite pick under a different name… seriously, when I was first considering entering this industry, more than one site executive told me I could do that and get paid for each “person” I represented) the timing of such a discussion is not surprising (and we, given our objective analysis, voice, methodology, personality, investment based strategy and transparency, certainly would prefer not to be lumped into that “tout” mentality in the industry). Ultimately, Dave and Chad agreed that the industry would be better off as a whole if there was more openness in the records of each service provider. Everyone is quick to boast about a winning streak, but few are brave enough to acknowledge the times when they lose.

With integrity, transparency and providing the most useful information at the forefront of our endeavor as we continue in our attempt to separate our site, approach and process from the “tout” world where the objective is too often not about winning picks but winning sales, this is why we at PredictionMachine.com have provided the TrendFinder. The TrendFinder is as transparent as any application in the industry and a tool for our clients to track the success of teams in just about every situation as well as the Predictalator’s success in straight-up, against-the-spread, money-line and over/under plays in all published sports.

The TrendFinder may not always shed light on positive results, but it should always provide valuable information to all (this tool is available for free to everyone, not just those who are subscribed to pick information) as a means for illustrating the areas in which we can expect the most likely success (which we view as accuracy most likely to match confidence, but I am sure “success” has various interpretations) and areas where success is not  as readily achieved and we may have an opportunity to make improvements.

As an example of the power of the TrendFinder and of an exercise we intend to continue (we did this often with football and basketball) to do periodically for all sports, below we provide the results for each MLB team in straight-up (SU), money-line (ML) and over/under (O/U) performance thus far in the season. Let’s look at two examples, one of our success and one of opportunity for improvement (all records through Sunday, May 13).

Success

Texas Rangers, through 33 games: SU Win% 63.6%, ML Win% 60.6% and O/U Win% 66.7%

It does not come as a surprise to us that we have picked correctly with the Rangers as they were PredictionMachine.com’s preseason favorites to win the World Series and currently lead the American League in record and MLB in run differential. We have had good fortune in Texas’ games as the Rangers offensively are leading the majors in nearly every statistical category and are currently projected to win 106 games.

Opportunity

Boston Red Sox, through 33 games: SU Win% 36.4%, ML Win% 42.4%, and O/U Win% 45.5%

Just like the Rangers, we had the Red Sox winning their division in our MLB preview. However, another slow start marred by a number of significant (in-game) injuries and, unexpectedly poor pitching highlighted (or is it “lowlighted”?) by Josh Beckett’s performances to-date have left the team’s record and our win percentages in poor shape.

We are constantly reviewing our records in straight-up, money-line,and over/under plays looking for ways to improve the Predictalator. We are working to improve our record with teams like the Red Sox and to maintain our success with teams like the Rangers. As often as we review the performance of all of our information, it is difficult to think of and check every possible play type combinations. Feedback is critical to what we do and we would love to know if you see any specific areas where we consistently excel or where considerable improvement is needed. Contact us at any time with thoughts. Check back each month to see how we are doing in baseball or follow along as the (thus-far) successful NBA Playoffs continue to unfold. 

The TrendFinder can always be found from PredictionMachine.com’s home page under the Data tab. It updates each day with the information through the previous day.

Team

Games

SU Win%

ML Win%

O/U Win%

Arizona

34

58.8

58.8

50.0

Atlanta

34

67.6

55.9

40.6

Baltimore

33

60.6

57.6

45.2

Boston

33

36.4

42.4

45.5

Chicago Cubs

33

66.7

57.6

41.9

Chicago White Sox

34

41.2

47.1

59.4

Cincinnati

31

61.3

45.2

50.0

Cleveland

33

39.4

51.5

40.6

Colorado

32

56.3

43.8

43.3

Detroit

33

54.5

54.5

61.3

Houston

33

60.6

66.7

58.1

Kansas City

32

43.8

46.9

48.4

LA Angels

34

58.8

50.0

31.3

LA Dodgers

33

69.7

33.3

48.4

Miami

33

45.5

36.4

48.4

Milwaukee

32

65.6

59.4

56.7

Minnesota

33

72.7

30.3

41.9

NY Mets

33

51.5

54.5

46.9

NY Yankees

33

57.6

57.6

61.3

Oakland

34

44.1

61.8

40.6

Philadelphia

34

52.9

67.6

44.1

Pittsburgh

33

60.6

51.5

37.9

San Diego

34

64.7

44.1

50.0

San Francisco

33

66.7

51.5

45.2

Seattle

35

68.6

45.7

58.8

St. Louis

33

45.5

36.4

57.6

Tampa

34

61.8

50.0

54.8

Texas

33

63.6

60.6

66.7

Toronto

34

44.1

44.1

46.9

Washington

33

63.6

54.5

32.3

It is important to remember when using the TrendFinder that sample size plays a key role in drawing conclusions from the data. You can place a large number of filters on a search so that the win percentage is 100%, but the number of games that meet the criteria may be small. Trying to draw conclusions from a sample of two or three games can be dangerous and is not recommended. Please keep this in mind as you use the TrendFinder.

As usual, if you have any of your own comments about this article or suggestions about how to improve the site, please do not hesitate to contact us at any time. We respond to every support contact as quickly as we can (usually within a few hours) and are very amenable to suggestions. I firmly believe that open communication with our customers and user feedback is the best way for us to grow and provide the types of products that will maximize the experience for all. Thank you in advance for your suggestions, comments and questions.

 

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04/14/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the week of April 7th - 13th, one could find that all highlighted, MLB "normal" or better picks went 26-19 (58% ML, O/U, RL). This includes "normal" over/under picks going 10-4 (71% O/U). All-time (since the start of the 2012 season), all normal over/under MLB plays are 270-212 (56% O/U).

As the regular season concludes, NBA plays are heating up. All normal plays for the week in the NBA went 7-4 (64% ATS & O/U). Total picks continue to be strong, going 4-2 (67% O/U) with "normal" picks last week. Such "normal" plays are 43-32 (57% O/U) since the beginning of the year in the NBA.

The Predictalator plays every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. This provides us the ability to assign probabilities to the likelihood of just about any outcome occurring in any contest including straight-up, against-the-spread and over/under winners of each game.

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