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    Bracketology & Odds (05/30/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    Comparing Bracketology to the bookmaker’s lines, does the seeding match the odds?

    Does the seeding match each team's odds? We look at Joe Lunardi’s most recent Bracketology to get a feel for next year’s March Madness. 

    The oddsmakers and Lunardi do not see eye to eye on each team.

    Key takeaways

    • Kansas (15/2) and Duke (10/1) are both 2-seeds even though they are the 2nd and 4th favorites respectively to win it all.
    • The Midwest would be the ‘Region of Death’; it includes 4 of the top 13 teams plus the favorite to win it all, Kentucky at 4/1 odds.
    • The lowest 1-seed, Arizona, has the 8th best odds of winning it all at 18/1.
    • A 10-seed, Tennessee, has better odds to win it all (33/1) than the 1st 4-seed Connecticut (40/1).

    Bad bets

    If Lunardi’s bracket turns out to be accurate then there are a number of bad future bets to avoid. Below are teams whose odds are not long enough given the history of their projected seed.

    Baylor, 8-seed, 50/1 odds

    • Only one 8-seed, Villanova (1985), has won it all.

    Gonzaga, 9-seed, 50/1 odds

    • Wichita State is the only 9-seed to reach the Final Four (2013).

    Tennessee, 10th seed, 33/1 odds

    • Seven 10-seeds have reached the Elite Eight, most recent Davidson (2008).

    Cincinnati, 11-seed, 100/1

    • Three 11-seeds have reached the Final Four but have never won it all.

    Iowa State, 12-seed, 100/1

    • The furthest a 12-seed has gone is the Elite Eight, Missouri (2002).

    Below are the most recent odds, courtesy of Bovada.lv, and each teams projected seeds according to Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology.

    Team Odds Seed
    Kentucky 4/1 1
    Kansas 15/2 2
    Louisville 10/1 1
    Duke 10/1 2
    Michigan State 12/1 1
    North Carolina 12/1 3
    Ohio State 16/1 3
    Arizona 18/1 1
    Florida 22/1 2
    Michigan 25/1 3
    Oklahoma State 25/1 3
    Syracuse 25/1 2
    Indiana 33/1 5
    Tennessee 33/1 10
    Connecticut 40/1 4
    UCLA 40/1 6
    Baylor 50/1 8
    Colorado 50/1 10
    Creighton 50/1 5
    Georgetown 50/1 7
    Gonzaga 50/1 9
    Iowa 50/1 6
    Marquette 50/1 4
    Memphis 50/1 4
    Missouri 50/1 10
    NC State 50/1 N/A
    Pittsburgh 50/1 6
    St. Louis 50/1 8
    VCU 50/1 N/A
    Wisconsin 50/1 4
    Butler 66/1 N/A
    Illinois 66/1 12
    Minnesota 66/1 N/A
    New Mexico 66/1 8
    St. John's 66/1 N/A
    UNLV 66/1 N/A
    Villanova 66/1 11
    Virginia 66/1 5
    Florida State 75/1 N/A
    Notre Dame 75/1 5
    Wichita State 75/1 7
    Alabama 100/1 7
    Arizona State 100/1 N/A
    BYU 100/1 10
    California 100/1 N/A
    Cincinnati 100/1 11
    Iowa State 100/1 12
    Kansas State 100/1 9
    Miami Florida  100/1 N/A
    Ole Miss 100/1 N/A
    Oregon 100/1 6

     

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