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    GameChangers - Top 25 (02/10/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    GameChangers, a look at plays that impacted the outcomes of NCAA college basketball games. If you have a suggestion for a GameChanger please direct all ideas via twitter to @johnewing.


     
    To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, Live ScoreCaster, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from college basketball and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently. 

    Click the links for each game to see the Live ScoreCaster charts as well as more analysis in the new Game Breakdown section.
     
    No. 19 Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech
     
    This game will be remembered for Oklahoma State’s Marcus Smart shoving a Texas Tech fan but it was the play before that cost the Cowboys the game. Trailing 63-61 with 10 seconds left, Oklahoma State’s Le’Bryan Nash turned the ball over. The costly turnover made Texas Tech 70% likely to win.
     
    Had Nash not turned the ball over and Oklahoma State scored to tie the game, their expected win probability increases from 30% to 45%.
     
    No. 9 Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
     
    Wisconsin point guard Traevon Jackson hit a 10-foot jumper with 2.1 seconds left to give the Badgers a 60-58 victory over Michigan State. Had Jackson’s shot missed, Michigan State would have been 58% likely to win with possession in a tie game.
     
    Before the game started we gave unranked Wisconsin a 65% chance of beating No. 9 Michigan State.
     
    No. 12 Creighton vs. St. John’s
     
    Doug McDermott scored 25 points to match his second in the nation scoring average, but St. John’s held him without a shot for the final 8:40 on their way to a 70-65 upset. The Red Storm’s D’Angelo Harrison made the go-ahead 3-pointer with 2:08 left to play, making St. John’s 58% likely to win leading 65-63.
     
    Had Harrison’s shot missed, Creighton’s expected win probability increases from 42% to 60% with possession and a 63-62 lead. A bucket on the next possession by the Bluejays would have made Creighton 70% likely to win.
     
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