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    ACC (03/11/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.


     
    Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.
     
    We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!
     
    PredictionMachine.com has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 84-54 (61% ATS and O/U), through 2013. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.
     
    When: March 12-15
     
    Where: Greensboro, NC
     
    The automatic bid goes to: Duke (32.5%)
     
    Duke leads the ACC and is No. 2 in offensive efficiency. The Blue Devil’s offense is prolific and Coach K is positioned to win his first ACC title since 2011.
     
    And if they lose: Virginia (27.5%)
     
    The Cavaliers may be the most balanced team in the ACC but Virginia will need a better effort than what we saw in the regular season finale, a loss at Maryland.
     
    Bid Thief:
     
    Florida State: The Seminoles are on the outside looking in as part of the “Next Four Out” in Lunardi’s Bracketology. Florida State will need to make a deep run in the ACC Tournament if the Seminoles will be dancing.
     
    Odds to win the ACC (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament) 

    Seed Team Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    3 Duke 100.0 79.3 54.6 32.5
    1 Virginia 100.0 73.0 50.3 27.7
    2 Syracuse 100.0 69.4 29.0 14.3
    4 North Carolina 100.0 52.9 21.0 9.2
    5 Pittsburgh 67.5 36.0 14.2 5.5
    9 Florida State 56.9 17.2 8.2 3.4
    6 Clemson 63.4 15.1 6.6 2.3
    10 Miami (FL) 38.4 12.5 3.0 1.2
    8 Maryland 43.1 9.8 4.0 1.1
    7 NC State 46.7 13.3 4.0 1.1
    12 Notre Dame 18.0 6.2 1.3 0.5
    15 Virginia Tech 15.0 4.9 1.2 0.5
    13 Wake Forest 14.5 5.0 1.1 0.4
    11 Georgia Tech 19.7 3.1 0.9 0.2
    14 Boston College 17.0 2.6 0.8 0.1

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