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    Big 10 (03/11/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.


     
    Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.
     
    We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!
     
    PredictionMachine.com has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 84-54 (61% ATS and O/U), through 2013. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.
     
    When: March 13-16
     
    Where: Indianapolis, IN
     
    The automatic bid goes to: Michigan (28.2%)
     
    There isn’t much that separates the Wolverines from the Badgers or the other top teams in the conference, yet Michigan repeatedly found a way to best the conference during the regular season. John Beilein coached his team to a Final Four last year, a Big 10 title might be the first step in the same direction this year.
     
    And if they lose: Wisconsin (20.3%)
     
    The Badgers have an outside shot at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with non-conference wins against Florida, St. Louis, and Virginia. A Big 10 Tournament championship might be enough to earn that No. 1 seed.
     
    Bid Thief:
     
    Purdue: The Boilermakers are dead last in the Big 10, if they are going to participate in March Madness they will need to earn the conference’s automatic bid. After the big boys, Purdue’s odds are the best of the rest.
     
    Odds to win the Big 10 (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament) 

    Seed Team Final Title Game Champ.
    1 Michigan  75.5  49.2  28.2
    2 Wisconsin  68.7  36.7  20.3
    6 Iowa  44.1  24.0  12.1
    3 Michigan St.  47.0  25.0  11.4
    5 Ohio State  43.2  19.3  10.2
    12 Purdue  20.0  8.9  4.8
    4 Nebraska  36.9  12.9  4.7
    11 Northwestern  8.9  4.9  2.5
    9 Indiana  12.3  4.9  1.6
    8 Illinois  12.2  4.9  1.5
    7 Minnesota  16.7  5.1  1.4
    10 Penn State  14.6  4.4  1.3

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