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    Big East (03/11/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.


     
    Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.
     
    We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!
     
    PredictionMachine.com has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 84-54 (61% ATS and O/U), through 2013. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.
     
    When: March 12-15
     
    Where: New York, NY
     
    The automatic bid goes to: Creighton (34.9%)
     
    The most likely title game features a Creighton/Villanova showdown. How could you pick against Creighton? The Bluejays have whupped the Wildcats by 21 and 28 points respectively in two regular season meetings.
     
    And if they lose: Villanova (32.3%)
     
    Working in Villanova’s favor, it is extremely difficult to beat a good team, potentially a No. 1 seed, three times in the same season. Plus, the Wildcats are ranked higher in our Power Rankings than Creighton, but is that enough?
     
    Bid Thief:
     
    St. John’s: The Big East could have as few as two teams or as many as six teams in the Big Dance. The Red Storm are on the bubble and will need quality wins in the Big East Tournament to punch a ticket to this year’s tournament.
     
    Odds to win the Big East (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament) 

    Seed Team Final Title Game Champ.
    2 Creighton  73.2  55.6  34.9
    1 Villanova  79.2  57.1  32.3
    5 St. John's  53.8  19.0  8.0
    3 Xavier  54.6  18.6  6.8
    4 Providence  46.3  15.4  6.2
    6 Marquette  45.5  12.8  4.5
    7 Georgetown  19.4  9.5  3.5
    10 DePaul  7.5  3.7  1.4
    9 Butler  10.5  4.3  1.2
    8 Seton Hall  10.4  4.3  1.2

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