Conference Champ Review (1/23/12)

Monday, January 23 at 6:15 PM ET
It is very important to us to be transparent and honest about our picks. I always try to recap each football weekend. With the addition of the TrendFinder database, which tracks all performance for all of our information (against published lines in every sport), the blog will focus more on topics beyond performance. Our performance is now as transparent as it can possibly get. We will still do our best to note areas of strength, while acknowledging areas of weakness - honing in on what this means to subscribers as it applies and touching on other, "big picture" topics in the process.

This blog will review the NFL Conference Championship results, the content schedule for the Super Bowl, basketball engine improvements, basketball power rankings, college basketball homecourt advantages, future blogs and college ATS wins by team. Next week, we will discuss the live NFL application that will launch for the Super Bowl (including an example chart from the AFC Championship Game) and have a formal announcement on hockey (testing is illustrating decent O/U value). Check out this Wall Street Journal article for a sneak peek at some of the information that can come from our live NFL analysis.

As a reminder, at midnight ET each day, we make all of our previous day's subscriber content available for free for registered users. Performance is also tracked in the TrendFinder Database (updated every morning from the previous day). We're never going to hide anything. So even though we have to swap out articles in the archive to focus on new ones, articles never go away. Just make sure to use the correct week and date in the URL - or ask us for the link...

NFL Conference Championship Weekend:
Conference Championship weekend featured two great games that played out relatively similar to our expectations. We had predicted that New England would defeat Baltimore (+7.5) 27-21 (U 50.5) and that the Giants (+2.5) would win outright at San Francisco 24-22 (O 43). In the AFC Championship game, our predicted halftime score was the same exact projected score, 27-21, as our pregame prediction. Ultimately, New England won, 23-20, after Billy Cundiff missed a field goal with 11 seconds remaining that could have tied the game. In the NFC Championship game, defenses played a little better than expected (and I still think conditions were a little overblown by the media coverage of the game, but did end up being a little worse and playing a little more of a role than we had anticipated), but the Giants were still able to pull off the upset, 20-17, in overtime. Those outcomes gave us a 3-1 ATS and O/U weekend, with the only loss coming from the OVER (43) in the NFC Championship game. For this postseason, ATS picks are 7-3 (70%), and all playable picks are 12-6 (67% ATS and O/U). Since we launched PredictionMachine.com the week before Super Bowl XLIV, our NFL Playoff picks are 19-3 ATS (86%). The formula that includes full season's worth of player and team data, easy access to injury information and the influx of wagers from the exploitable and biased public (the side in each game this season that has been wagered on more is just 5-4-1 ATS, with essentially 50/50 money coming in on NYG @ GB) has historically led to the best performances by this type of technology (as is also the case during the NCAA tournament).

We will talk more about the key points to the games, most notably with the AFC Championship, when reviewing the live projection chart next week, but there were a few observations that I wanted to mention. First, in this postseason, we have been on the side of the team with the higher regular season sack rate (defensive sacks/pass plays faced) in every game. That is not necessarily a fluke. The public sees the offensive numbers and overvalues teams with elite quarterbacks. We see the value of elite pass rushes and their abilities to neutralize elite quarterbacks. This formula likely will not work forever, but it makes total sense now... That being said, both teams still remaining in the playoffs have elite quarterbacks.

Another formula helping teams win that cannot work forever that was on full display this weekend involved game winning or tying field goals in the waning seconds. Research suggests that the impact of icing a kicker in the NFL is very minimal. However, at this point, there actually appears to be some value in not icing a kicker. In the NFC Championship game, the 49ers still had two timeouts and the Giants had three when New York lined up for what could (would eventually) be the game-winning field goal in overtime. The Giants' kicking team took its time, assuming San Francisco would use a timeout to ice the try. When the 49ers elected not to ice the kicker, New York just sat there confused until the team picked up a delay of game penalty (I am someone who typically yells at the TV when teams waste timeouts to avoid delay of game penalties - five yards is not usually worth a timeout - but this was egregious). Lawrence Tynes (I like that guy today; I did not like him 24 hours ago) had to make a field goal from five yards further away almost exclusively because San Francisco did not ice the kicker. Then, in the AFC Championship game, Baltimore still had a timeout remaining (because it had foolishly saved the timeout instead of run the ball on third and one on the previous play to give its team up to three more shots at the endzone) when the Ravens lined up for what could (would not eventually) be the game-tying field goal with eleven seconds to go. As the play clock ticked down and New England, which had three timeouts, elected not to use any of them to ice the kicker, Baltimore rushed the snap and kick. With 50 seconds left in the game, down three points and driving deep into New England territory, Baltimore was 68.2% likely to win the game. They cost themselves all of that chance by mismanaging the next 30 seconds. Kudos to Bill Belichick and Jim Harbaugh for bucking the trend and making the opposing kicker more uncomfortable by not icing him.

Super Bowl Content:
The 19-3 ATS playoff record and my personal 7-0 ATS mark in published Super Bowls as a professional will be on the line for Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis between the New England Patriots and New York Giants. Four years ago, these two teams played in Super Bowl XLII and the Patriots were 12 point favorites. This year, the line is much tighter, likely with New England (-3), only a three point favorite, which would be the first time in 11 years and just seventh time all-time that the line has been on the magic number of three. In the previous six games though, the line has not pushed (i.e. the favorite did not win by exactly three points) and four underdogs have actually won outright. It's not my favorite line to play against, but it looks as though we will still have a strong opinion on the side.

Just as in prior years, the Super Bowl against-the-spread, over/under and straight-up pick as well as the general analysis of the game will be free to all. This content will be posted on Wednesday, January 25th at 4:00 pm ET. The boxscore, team and player props projections and in-depth props analysis as well as any updates to the game pick due to injuries or other roster information will be published on Tuesday, January 31st at 4:00 pm ET (and updated as necessary after that). Only subscribers to the Super Bowl Props with Live In-Game Super Bowl Picks package will have access to the Super Bowl content published next week. Subscribers will also have access to the live Super Bowl projection of the game, which will be great for live, by quarter or half-time wagering and will be found on the Game Picks article for the Super Bowl (I think it's pretty sweet).

College Basketball Engine Updates
As we continuously look for ways to improve our engines and leverage our TrendFinder Database information, we have uncovered and implemented a couple of different ways to enhance the college basketball Predictalator. First, we have consolidated our data so that our strength-of-schedule modifications perfectly matchup with our inputs. Ultimately a subtle change to performance, there had previously been an (unintended) opportunity for disconnect between sets of data for the same teams. This disconnect is no longer possible. Secondly, and most importantly/interestingly, we have upgraded how we handle unique homecourt advantages by college basketball school (and will do the same in the same way with college football - and all sports, though it matters the most in college sports).

Homecourt advantage in college basketball is typically presumed to mean "about four points" (the average right now is actually closer to 3.5) difference in the final score. This means that if two teams were identical, neither team would be favored on a neutral court and the home team would be favored by four if they played at one of the team's arenas. This can lead to essentially an eight point swing from one venue to the next. The truth is that some venues could actually mean up 8-9 points, while some do not help at all (and there are 345 DI college basketball stadiums). As we touched on last week, our historical accuracy in college basketball during preseason tournaments, conference tournaments and the NCAA tournament is greater than 60% ATS. However, in regular season games (i.e. where one team plays on its homecourt as opposed to the games being played on neutral courts), our performance has not nearly been as strong (this season, our picks in non-neutral games are just 51.7% ATS). In addition to the obvious difference in our performance, tracking line movements in the Play Analyzer noted lines played at the same arenas typically moved in the same direction. As we researched this further, it became clear that, aside from in the case of injuries or late-breaking roster information, line movements most often moved in the direction of homecourt (favoring a team with a strong homecourt by more or favoring the away team by more when the homecourt is not as strong). As generalized as I can state it, if the consensus for books is to flatly apply four points for the home team, those who understand the true application of home court advantages exploit that and, in turn, move the line. I do not mean to speak for books or even to say that blindly following this strategy will yield profitable results, but it did lead to some significant changes on our end as we better account for each venue's true value (relative to pace of play) both for the expectation in the game being played and in how to remove the bias of homecourt in a team's data. We have always done this to some degree, yet have drastically improved this process.

Below, we present two college basketball charts. The first chart is every DI college basketball team listed in order of the strength of its homecourt (as ranked by points per expected possession that the homecourt adds). Strong homecourts seem to fall into one of three categories: 1) High elevation (the top four arenas are all at least 4,500 feet above sea level), 2) Extreme tempo teams (teams are more comfortable dictating tempo at home so the fast teams like Missouri tend to play their fastest and the slow teams like Wisconsin tend to play their slowest at home) and 3) Average teams for their conference that still draw sizable crowds (terrible teams are terrible anywhere and great teams are usually great anywhere, but average teams with a strong fanbase, like Oklahoma State, Alabama and Eastern Michigan) have very good homecourt advantages. Remember that homecourt advantage compares expected scores at home AND on the road with no homecourt advantage factored with actual scores from games to quantify the value of playing at home. The second chart is our up-to-date against-the-spread performance for every team in college basketball. As you can see, there are a few teams that we have completely missed (like Saint Louis and Davidson), while our performance with the majority of teams has been respectable. The further we get into the season, the easier it is to incorporate this data into our engine improvements and daily picks.

Basketball Performance Notes
It's not expected to be sustainable, could be a fluke and may not have anything to do with recent tweaks, but the implementation of the updated college basketball engine completed on Saturday. On Saturday and Sunday, college basketball "normal" or better picks did go 8-2 ATS. Admittedly, performance in this area has not been as good/profitable since Week 4 (aka the conclusion of the preseason neutral court tournament period). The performance was needed. Hopefully, it is a sign that the improvements have us headed in the right direction and performance will continue to improve.

One other note of interest from college basketball is actually relevant to every sport we have tracked with the TrendFinder. It is true for college basketball, the NBA, college football and the NFL that, when we have a strong/"normal" or better O/U opinion on a game, our performance in that game overall (both O/U and ATS) is much better than the average playable pick, even if the other pick for that game is "weak." For instance, we are 17-10 ATS in games with normal+ NBA picks. Overall, in these situations, across all sports, when we have normal+ O/U picks, we are 149-110 (58% ATS). That translates to 74% ATS in NFL, 52% ATS in college football, 59% in NBA and 57% in college basketball in the most recent seasons (all better than playable picks in other situations). It would make sense that, since spreads and totals are correlated, when we think that a game is going to be played at a different pace than the line, the against-the-spread outcome is impacted by that.

Blog Topics:
With the football season winding down and the TrendFinder handling all performance reporting, even with "mad scientist mode" in full effect and plenty of new concepts for this site in creation/incubation, I will have far more time to delve deep into money-management, sports analysis and general sports (or non-sports, space-based solar power anyone?) related topics in the blog. I have several topics that I deem important that I intend to get into soon. More importantly, I would love to hear from you. If you have a topic that you would like to see me discuss/breakdown/analyze/ramble on about, please do not hesitate to contact us with your ideas or questions. Part of me writes this blog for me (though, if that were the only audience member it would probably be very different - lots of Mike Gundy bashing even if he didn't do anything "wrong" in the Fiesta Bowl), but I am far more concerned about producing (free) content that is valuable to you.

College Basketball Homecourt Advantage by Team:

Rank Team
1 Denver
2 Wyoming
3 Colorado
4 Utah Valley
5 Missouri
6 Wisconsin
7 Notre Dame
8 Miami (OH)
9 Utah St.
10 St. Francis PA
11 Oklahoma St.
12 Oklahoma
13 Purdue
14 Howard
15 Arkansas St.
16 Georgia St.
17 George Mason
18 Portland
19 Fresno St.
20 Western Carolina
21 Arkansas
22 Indiana
23 Alabama
24 Wright St.
25 Nebraska
26 Northern Arizona
27 Southeastern Louisiana
28 Ohio St.
29 Eastern Michigan
30 Longwood
31 Duke
32 Pittsburgh
33 Wisconsin Green Bay
34 High Point
35 Utah
36 Creighton
37 Illinois
38 Drexel
39 Drake
40 Louisiana Lafayette
41 Hawaii
42 Toledo
43 Morehead St.
44 Arizona
45 Providence
46 California
47 Northern Colorado
48 Clemson
49 Georgia Southern
50 Texas St.
51 Louisiana Tech
52 Wake Forest
53 Missouri St.
54 Tennessee St.
55 Mississippi Valley St.
56 Georgia
57 Portland St.
58 Texas Tech
59 Central Connecticut
60 Charleston Southern
61 McNeese St.
62 Evansville
63 Weber St.
64 Fordham
65 Oral Roberts
66 Xavier
67 Texas
68 Cal St. Bakersfield
69 Prairie View A&M
70 Texas Southern
71 Idaho St.
72 Campbell
73 South Carolina
74 Western Michigan
75 Bowling Green
76 Harvard
77 Southern
78 Louisville
79 Illinois St.
80 College of Charleston
81 Miami FL
82 Temple
83 Eastern Washington
84 Oregon St.
85 West Virginia
86 Ball St.
87 Auburn
88 St. Louis
89 New Mexico
90 Central Michigan
91 Maryland Eastern Shore
92 Washington
93 Middle Tennessee
94 Morgan St.
95 Texas A&M
96 Siena
97 Texas Pan American
98 Houston
99 Illinois Chicago
100 San Francisco
101 Kansas St.
102 South Florida
103 North Carolina A&T
104 NJIT
105 Memphis
106 Youngstown St.
107 Delaware St.
108 North Dakota
109 Chicago St.
110 Dartmouth
111 Central Florida
112 East Tennessee St.
113 Mount St. Mary's
114 UCLA
115 Belmont
116 Chattanooga
117 Duquesne
118 Tulsa
119 Mississippi
120 Alabama A&M
121 Baylor
122 Georgia Tech
123 Sacramento St.
124 Nicholls St.
125 Northwestern St.
126 Villanova
127 Houston BaptiSt.
128 Boise St.
129 Marist
130 Southern Methodist
131 San Diego
132 UAB
133 Iowa
134 Furman
135 Montana
136 Norfolk St.
137 Valparaiso
138 Monmouth
139 Maryland
140 Radford
141 Murray St.
142 Long Island
143 Southern Utah
144 Niagara
145 Troy
146 Florida Gulf Coast
147 Bucknell
148 Alcorn St.
149 Northwestern
150 North Carolina
151 Lamar
152 Kentucky
153 Arkansas Little Rock
154 Washington St.
155 Florida A&M
156 Nevada
157 Winthrop
158 Navy
159 North Dakota St.
160 Pepperdine
161 Florida St.
162 Tulane
163 UTEP
164 South Dakota
165 Cornell
166 Buffalo
167 Florida
168 Kansas
169 Indiana St.
170 Michigan St.
171 Stephen F. Austin
172 South Carolina St.
173 Stanford
174 Rutgers
175 Arizona St.
176 St. Bonaventure
177 Dayton
178 Oakland
179 Michigan
180 LSU
181 San Jose St.
182 St. Mary's
183 Air Force
184 Detroit
185 Old Dominion
186 Hartford
187 Colorado St.
188 Mercer
189 Robert Morris
190 Wisconsin Milwaukee
191 Lafayette
192 Eastern Kentucky
193 St. John's
194 South Dakota St.
195 Appalachian St.
196 Virginia
197 New Mexico St.
198 Stetson
199 Stony Brook
200 Virginia Tech
201 Arkansas Pine Bluff
202 Cleveland St.
203 Akron
204 Northern Illinois
205 Binghamton
206 Yale
207 VCU
208 Delaware
209 Southern Illinois
210 Minnesota
211 Brigham Young
212 Long Beach St.
213 Western Illinois
214 Canisius
215 NC Wilmington
216 Coppin St.
217 Loyola Marymount
218 UC Irvine
219 IPFW
220 Brown
221 Iowa St.
222 IUPUI
223 Idaho
224 Kent St.
225 New Hampshire
226 TCU
227 Santa Clara
228 Montana St.
229 Albany
230 Lehigh
231 Davidson
232 Southern Mississippi
233 Lipscomb
234 DePaul
235 Texas A&M Corpus Christi
236 USC
237 Northern Iowa
238 Rhode Island
239 Boston University
240 North Carolina St.
241 Hofstra
242 Wichita St.
243 Princeton
244 UC Santa Barbara
245 Liberty
246 Texas Arlington
247 Marshall
248 Holy Cross
249 Seton Hall
250 James Madison
251 Massachusetts
252 Tennessee
253 Sam Houston St.
254 Florida Atlantic
255 Saint Joseph's
256 Oregon
257 Ohio
258 Presbyterian
259 Jacksonville
260 Columbia
261 Bradley
262 Alabama St.
263 Colgate
264 Mississippi St.
265 Eastern Illinois
266 Kennesaw St.
267 North Texas
268 Vanderbilt
269 Savannah St.
270 VMI
271 North Carolina Central
272 Jacksonville St.
273 St. Francis NY
274 La Salle
275 Penn St.
276 Western Kentucky
277 Marquette
278 San Diego St.
279 SIU Edwardsville
280 Florida International
281 Charlotte
282 Austin Peay
283 American
284 NC Asheville
285 UMKC
286 William & Mary
287 Seattle
288 Boston College
289 Iona
290 Butler
291 Central Arkansas
292 UC Riverside
293 Connecticut
294 Georgetown
295 St. Peter's
296 Citadel
297 Elon
298 UNLV
299 Quinnipiac
300 Army
301 Gonzaga
302 Gardner Webb
303 Fairfield
304 UC Davis
305 Rice
306 Jackson St.
307 South Carolina Upstate
308 Pacific
309 Wofford
310 Tennessee Martin
311 Pennsylvania
312 Sacred Heart
313 Cal St. Northridge
314 Nebraska Omaha
315 Richmond
316 Cincinnati
317 Vermont
318 Tennessee Tech
319 Fairleigh Dickinson
320 Manhattan
321 Texas San Antonio
322 Cal St. Fullerton
323 Cal Poly
324 Loyola Chicago
325 Southeast Missouri St.
326 Maine
327 Grambling St.
328 Coastal Carolina
329 Syracuse
330 East Carolina
331 Louisiana Monroe
332 Wagner
333 Bethune Cookman
334 Northeastern
335 George Washington
336 Samford
337 South Alabama
338 Loyola MD
339 Hampton
340 Bryant
341 NC Greensboro
342 Towson
343 North Florida
344 Rider
345 MD Baltimore County

College Basketball ATS Performance by Team:
Actual, real-life ATS, O/U and SU performance by team can be found on each team's schedule page. However, as we continue to leverage the TrendFinder database to find opportunities to improve our engines, we spend a considerable amount of time looking at team-by-team ATS performance of our own picks. While this information is interesting, it important to note that a) we do our best to "fix" any areas uncovered by this analysis where we believe there may be weaknesses and b) along those lines, we would not recommend blindly picking against our information when teams are involved for which we have not had a strong record this season. In the table below, "Games" represents all games that the team has played that did not result in an ATS push (including games that were not considered "playable" by the Predictalator - that info is still of great interest). "PM ATS Wins" is the number of games involving that team that resulted in an accurate ATS win by the Predictalator this year.

Team Games PM ATS Wins PM ATS%<
Stetson Hatters 2 2 100%
Winthrop Eagles 2 2 100%
Florida A&M Rattlers 2 2 100%
Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks 2 2 100%
Bryant Bulldogs 2 2 100%
Texas-Arlington Mavericks 2 2 100%
South Carolina Upstate Spartans 1 1 100%
Presbyterian Blue Hose 1 1 100%
Coppin State Eagles 1 1 100%
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils 1 1 100%
Robert Morris Colonials 1 1 100%
Southeastern Louisiana Lions 1 1 100%
Ball State Cardinals 11 9 82%
Manhattan Jaspers 19 15 79%
Indiana State Sycamores 19 15 79%
Providence Friars 14 11 79%
Houston Cougars 9 7 78%
Southern Illinois Salukis 17 13 76%
Oregon Ducks 17 13 76%
UC Davis Aggies 16 12 75%
Towson Tigers 16 12 75%
Niagara Purple Eagles 16 12 75%
Mississippi Rebels 16 12 75%
North Dakota State Bison 12 9 75%
UTSA Roadrunners 4 3 75%
Virginia Commonwealth Rams 19 14 74%
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 19 14 74%
DePaul Blue Demons 15 11 73%
St. John's Red Storm 15 11 73%
Old Dominion Monarchs 15 11 73%
Auburn Tigers 11 8 73%
Kentucky Wildcats 18 13 72%
Xavier Musketeers 16 11 69%
Duke Blue Devils 18 12 67%
Seton Hall Pirates 15 10 67%
Georgia State Panthers 15 10 67%
Pennsylvania Quakers 15 10 67%
Bowling Green Falcons 15 10 67%
San Francisco Dons 15 10 67%
Murray State Racers 12 8 67%
North Texas Mean Green 12 8 67%
Yale Bulldogs 6 4 67%
Albany Great Danes 3 2 67%
Mercer Bears 3 2 67%
Sam Houston State Bearkats 3 2 67%
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils 3 2 67%
South Dakota Coyotes 3 2 67%
Louisville Cardinals 17 11 65%
La Salle Explorers 14 9 64%
Northwestern Wildcats 14 9 64%
William & Mary Tribe 14 9 64%
UCF Knights 14 9 64%
Colorado Buffaloes 14 9 64%
Hawaii Warriors 11 7 64%
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 11 7 64%
St. Bonaventure Bonnies 16 10 63%
Northeastern Huskies 16 10 63%
Memphis Tigers 16 10 63%
Drake Bulldogs 16 10 63%
Colorado State Rams 16 10 63%
Portland State Vikings 13 8 62%
Harvard Crimson 13 8 62%
Siena Saints 13 8 62%
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 13 8 62%
Syracuse Orange 18 11 61%
Illinois Fighting Illini 18 11 61%
Detroit Titans 18 11 61%
Arizona State Sun Devils 18 11 61%
Brigham Young Cougars 18 11 61%
Richmond Spiders 15 9 60%
Miami 15 9 60%
Southern Methodist Mustangs 15 9 60%
Kent State Golden Flashes 15 9 60%
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks 15 9 60%
Georgia Bulldogs 15 9 60%
Vanderbilt Commodores 15 9 60%
Western Illinois Leathernecks 10 6 60%
Monmouth Hawks 5 3 60%
James Madison Dukes 17 10 59%
North Carolina Greensboro Spartans 17 10 59%
Florida Atlantic Owls 17 10 59%
Arizona Wildcats 19 11 58%
USC Trojans 19 11 58%
Mississippi State Bulldogs 19 11 58%
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 14 8 57%
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 14 8 57%
Montana State Bobcats 14 8 57%
Cal State Northridge Matadors 14 8 57%
Saint Peter's Peacocks 14 8 57%
Florida Gators 14 8 57%
Southern Utah Thunderbirds 14 8 57%
Drexel Dragons 16 9 56%
Western Michigan Broncos 16 9 56%
Creighton Bluejays 16 9 56%
Wichita State Shockers 16 9 56%
Western Carolina Catamounts 16 9 56%
Denver Pioneers 16 9 56%
Purdue Boilermakers 18 10 56%
Wisconsin Badgers 18 10 56%
Long Beach State 49ers 18 10 56%
George Mason Patriots 18 10 56%
Butler Bulldogs 18 10 56%
Utah Runnin' Utes 18 10 56%
Brown Bears 9 5 56%
Toledo Rockets 11 6 55%
Arkansas Razorbacks 11 6 55%
Samford Bulldogs 11 6 55%
South Dakota State Jackrabbits 11 6 55%
Pacific Tigers 13 7 54%
Delaware Fightin Blue Hens 13 7 54%
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 13 7 54%
TCU Horned Frogs 13 7 54%
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 13 7 54%
Morehead State Eagles 13 7 54%
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles 13 7 54%
Oklahoma Sooners 15 8 53%
Connecticut Huskies 15 8 53%
Nebraska Cornhuskers 15 8 53%
Rider Broncs 15 8 53%
Illinois State Redbirds 15 8 53%
Alabama Crimson Tide 15 8 53%
Elon Phoenix 15 8 53%
Saint Mary's Gaels 15 8 53%
Dayton Flyers 17 9 53%
George Washington Colonials 17 9 53%
Kansas Jayhawks 17 9 53%
Minnesota Golden Gophers 17 9 53%
Valparaiso Crusaders 17 9 53%
Canisius Golden Griffins 17 9 53%
Fairfield Stags 17 9 53%
Boise State Broncos 17 9 53%
Washington Huskies 17 9 53%
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles 17 9 53%
Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans 17 9 53%
Gonzaga Bulldogs 19 10 53%
Rhode Island Rams 18 9 50%
North Carolina Tar Heels 18 9 50%
Bradley Braves 18 9 50%
UCLA Bruins 18 9 50%
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 18 9 50%
Saint Joseph's Hawks 16 8 50%
South Florida Bulls 16 8 50%
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 16 8 50%
Ohio State Buckeyes 16 8 50%
North Carolina Wilmington Seahawks 16 8 50%
UTEP Miners 16 8 50%
Cleveland State Vikings 16 8 50%
Georgia Southern Eagles 16 8 50%
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 16 8 50%
Pepperdine Waves 16 8 50%
Kansas State Wildcats 14 7 50%
Texas Tech Red Raiders 14 7 50%
Hofstra Pride 14 7 50%
Furman Paladins 14 7 50%
South Alabama Jaguars 14 7 50%
Fordham Rams 12 6 50%
Marshall Thundering Herd 12 6 50%
Marist Red Foxes 12 6 50%
Ohio Bobcats 12 6 50%
Troy Trojans 12 6 50%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions 6 3 50%
UNC Asheville Bulldogs 4 2 50%
New Orleans Privateers 2 1 50%
Morgan State Golden Bears 2 1 50%
Wagner Seahawks 2 1 50%
SIU Edwardsville Cougars 2 1 50%
Lamar Cardinals 2 1 50%
Alcorn State Braves 2 1 50%
Southern University Jaguars 2 1 50%
Villanova Wildcats 17 8 47%
West Virginia Mountaineers 17 8 47%
UIC Flames 17 8 47%
Fresno State Bulldogs 17 8 47%
Virginia Tech Hokies 15 7 47%
Indiana Hoosiers 15 7 47%
Akron Zips 15 7 47%
Austin Peay Governors 15 7 47%
San Diego Toreros 15 7 47%
Boston College Eagles 13 6 46%
Clemson Tigers 13 6 46%
Maryland Terrapins 13 6 46%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 13 6 46%
Loyola 13 6 46%
Wyoming Cowboys 13 6 46%
Virginia Cavaliers 11 5 45%
Tulane Green Wave 11 5 45%
Eastern Kentucky Colonels 11 5 45%
Northern Iowa Panthers 20 9 45%
Temple Owls 18 8 44%
Columbia Lions 9 4 44%
North Carolina State Wolfpack 16 7 44%
Eastern Washington Eagles 16 7 44%
Idaho State Bengals 16 7 44%
UAB Blazers 16 7 44%
Iona Gaels 16 7 44%
Central Michigan Chippewas 16 7 44%
Evansville Aces 16 7 44%
Tennessee Volunteers 16 7 44%
Loyola Marymount Lions 16 7 44%
Missouri Tigers 14 6 43%
Cincinnati Bearcats 14 6 43%
Youngstown State Penguins 14 6 43%
Eastern Michigan Eagles 14 6 43%
Tennessee State Tigers 14 6 43%
FIU Golden Panthers 14 6 43%
San Jose State Spartans 14 6 43%
Utah State Aggies 14 6 43%
California Golden Bears 19 8 42%
Portland Pilots 19 8 42%
Baylor Bears 12 5 42%
Sacramento State Hornets 12 5 42%
Chattanooga Mocs 12 5 42%
Citadel Bulldogs 12 5 42%
IPFW Mastodons 12 5 42%
IUPUI Jaguars 12 5 42%
Massachusetts Minutemen 17 7 41%
Florida State Seminoles 17 7 41%
Oklahoma State Cowboys 17 7 41%
Marquette Golden Eagles 17 7 41%
Cal Poly Mustangs 17 7 41%
Loyola 17 7 41%
Missouri State Bears 17 7 41%
Iowa State Cyclones 15 6 40%
Pittsburgh Panthers 15 6 40%
Weber State Wildcats 15 6 40%
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 15 6 40%
Miami 15 6 40%
Arkansas State Red Wolves 15 6 40%
Rice Owls 10 4 40%
Air Force Falcons 10 4 40%
Eastern Illinois Panthers 10 4 40%
Michigan State Spartans 18 7 39%
UNLV Runnin' Rebels 18 7 39%
South Carolina Gamecocks 13 5 38%
Appalachian State Mountaineers 13 5 38%
Oakland Golden Grizzlies 13 5 38%
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 16 6 38%
Northern Colorado Bears 16 6 38%
San Diego State Aztecs 16 6 38%
Oregon State Beavers 16 6 38%
Charlotte 49ers 11 4 36%
Cal State Fullerton Titans 11 4 36%
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos 14 5 36%
Buffalo Bulls 14 5 36%
Wofford Terriers 14 5 36%
Michigan Wolverines 17 6 35%
Milwaukee Panthers 17 6 35%
Washington State Cougars 17 6 35%
Montana Grizzlies 15 5 33%
Penn State Nittany Lions 15 5 33%
Green Bay Phoenix 15 5 33%
Texas Longhorns 12 4 33%
Princeton Tigers 12 4 33%
Boston University Terriers 3 1 33%
Belmont Bruins 3 1 33%
Norfolk State Spartans 3 1 33%
Lehigh Mountain Hawks 3 1 33%
New Mexico Lobos 16 5 31%
Charleston Cougars 16 5 31%
Davidson Wildcats 16 5 31%
UMKC Kangaroos 13 4 31%
East Carolina Pirates 10 3 30%
UC-Irvine Anteaters 14 4 29%
Northern Illinois Huskies 14 4 29%
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 14 4 29%
Santa Clara Broncos 14 4 29%
Cornell Big Red 7 2 29%
Dartmouth Big Green 7 2 29%
Wright State Raiders 18 5 28%
Iowa Hawkeyes 15 4 27%
California Riverside Highlanders 15 4 27%
Duquesne Dukes 16 4 25%
LSU Tigers 16 4 25%
Stanford Cardinal 17 4 24%
Georgetown Hoyas 13 3 23%
Idaho Vandals 13 3 23%
Nevada Wolf Pack 14 3 21%
New Mexico State Aggies 14 3 21%
Texas A&M Aggies 10 2 20%
Saint Louis Billikens 15 2 13%
Kennesaw State Owls 2 0 0%
Liberty Flames 2 0 0%
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 2 0 0%
Nicholls Colonels 2 0 0%
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders 2 0 0%
Charleston Southern Buccaneers 1 0 0%
Virginia Military Keydets 1 0 0%
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners 1 0 0%
Howard Bison 1 0 0%
Savannah State Tigers 1 0 0%
Army Black Knights 1 0 0%
Central Arkansas Bears 1 0 0%
Alabama A&M Bulldogs 1 0 0%

As usual, if you have any of your own comments about this article or suggestions about how to improve the site, please do not hesitate to contact us at any time. We respond to every support contact as quickly as we can (usually within a few hours) and are very amenable to suggestions. I firmly believe that open communication with our customers and user feedback is the best way for us to grow and provide the types of products that will maximize the experience for all. Thank you in advance for your suggestions, comments and questions.

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The Predictalator

The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (home field advantage) and weather in each game.

04/14/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the week of April 7th - 13th, one could find that all highlighted, MLB "normal" or better picks went 26-19 (58% ML, O/U, RL). This includes "normal" over/under picks going 10-4 (71% O/U). All-time (since the start of the 2012 season), all normal over/under MLB plays are 270-212 (56% O/U).

As the regular season concludes, NBA plays are heating up. All normal plays for the week in the NBA went 7-4 (64% ATS & O/U). Total picks continue to be strong, going 4-2 (67% O/U) with "normal" picks last week. Such "normal" plays are 43-32 (57% O/U) since the beginning of the year in the NBA.

The Predictalator plays every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. This provides us the ability to assign probabilities to the likelihood of just about any outcome occurring in any contest including straight-up, against-the-spread and over/under winners of each game.

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