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    Big South (03/04/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.



    Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.

    We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance.The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport.

    PredictionMachine.com has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 84-54 (61% ATS and O/U). For access to conference tournament picks, click here.

    When: March 5-9

    Where: Conway, South Carolina

    The automatic bid goes to: UNC - Asheville (14.7%)

    The Bulldogs are the most likely Big South tournament winner, though nearly every game is a coin flip in #MyrtleBeachMadness. UNC-Asheville is the highest rated team in our Power Rankings from the Big South. The Bulldogs have one of the most efficient offenses in the league with Andrew Rowsey leading the conference in scoring. A Big South title would be UNC-Asheville’s first since 2012, subsequently the last time they participated in the NCAA tournament.

    And if they lose: Coastal Carolina (14.6%)

    The Chanticleers, the tournament host, won the South Division title outright for the first time in the program’s history. As the No. 1 seed in the South and with home court advantage, the Chants have a legitimate chance to return to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1993.

    Bid Thieves:

    The Field: Pick any team in the quarterfinals and they have at least a 10% chance of winning the Big South’s automatic bid.

    Odds to win Big South (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament) 

    Seed Team Final Title Game Champ.
    1N High Point 47.8 22.8 11.6
    4S/5N Winthrop/Liberty 52.3 26.0 13.2
    2S UNC - Ash 53.1 28.1 14.7
    3N/6S Radford/Presbyterian 47.0 23.3 10.6
    1S Co. Carolina 53.8 27.7 14.6
    5S/4N Charleston So./Campbell 46.3 23.1 10.3
    2N VMI 50.5 25.7 12.7
    3S/6N Gardner-Webb/Longwood 49.5 23.7 12.5

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