New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    GameChangers Week 4 (10/05/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, Live ScoreCaster, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.

    Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.

    The Play

    Rams vs. Cardinals



    St. Louis handed Arizona its first loss of the season with a 24-22 home defeat. The Rams forced three turnovers that led to 17 points but Jeff Fisher's squad was fortunate that their mistakes did not lead to points for the Cardinals.

    Late in the third quarter, inside their own 10-yard line, St. Louis running back Benny Cunningham was stripped of the ball and Arizona recovered. However, officials ruled that Cunningham's forward progress had been stopped. Therefore the play was dead and the fumble never occurred. Replay showed otherwise and the fumble should have stood.

    If Arizona gets possession inside the Rams 10-yard line trailing 17-12, the Cardinals would have become 61 percent likely to win. Instead, St. Louis retained possession and Arizona's expected win probability dropped to 38 percent.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    The Decision

    Chiefs vs. Bengals



    Kansas City fell to Cincinnati 36-21 in the Queen City. Alex Smith was sacked five times, the defense allowed five touchdowns and Carlos Santos tied a record for the second most field goals in an NFL game by connecting from 22, 40, 51, 34, 40, 29 and 51 yards.

    The first five attempts made sense (brought Kansas City to within in one score of tying or taking the lead) but the last two were indefensible decisions by Andy Reid as each were kicked with Kansas City trailing by at least two touchdowns in the fourth.

    Combined, the last two field goals actually lowered the Chiefs' expected win probability by four percent, which doesn't seem like much but Kansas City was never greater than seven percent likely to win in the game's final quarter.

    Perhaps Reid thought longer field goals were worth more points, like in fantasy.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    Additional Highlights

    Jaguars kicker Jason Myers missed a 53-yard field goal (twice) at the end of regulation and then another 48-yard attempt (decreased Jacksonville's expected win probability by 37 percent) in overtime. Adam Vinatieri booted a 27-yarder to win the game 16-13.

    The Jets started fast in London led by Ryan Fitzpatrick who completed a 58-yard pass to Brandon Marshall on the team's first play from scrimmage (was the largest swing in win probability in the game). New York defeat Miami 27-14 in Wembley Stadium.

    Jay Cutler shook off a costly fourth quarter interception (lowered Chicago's expected win probability by 25 percent) to lead the Bears on a game-winning drive. Chicago upset Oakland 22-20 at home.

    Kirk Cousins navigated Arizona 90 yards for a game-winning score. Before the drive the Redskins were 27 percent likely to win.

    Saints kicker Zack Hooker hit the upright on a potential game-winning field goal (New Orleans' expected win probability dropped from 93 percent to 56 percent) at the end of regulation but Drew Brees threw his 400th career touchdown pass in overtime to give New Orleans its first win of the season.

    Pittsburgh kicker Josh Scobee missed two field goals late (combined the misses lowered the Steelers expected win probability by 53 percent) that could have won the game. In overtime Justin Tucker booted a 42-yarder to win the game.

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    NFL Trends Week 5 (10/07/15)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    NFL Trends Week 4 (09/30/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    03/27/2017 Highlight: With the start of MLB right around the corner, we can use our ResultsFinder tool to uncover some past success in baseball. April has historically been a great month for the Predictalator, as evidenced by last season's outstanding 41-22 (65.1%) record on all "normal" or better ML, RL, and O/U plays. A $50 bettor would have profited a whopping $1,002 using our recommended wager sizes in April. MLB season win totals have also been extremely fruitful in the history of this site, with the Predictalator producing an outstanding 54-19 (74.0%) record on all playable win totals.

    March Madness is winding down and it was another solid month for the Predictalator. There were a total of 69 "normal" or better college hoops positions (sides and totals) in the month of March, and the Predictalator posted a strong 42-27 (60.9%) record, generating $704 in total profits. NBA has also followed suit with "normal" or better positions winning at a 58.1% clip since the beginning of February, and at a 57.9% clip for March.

    NHL profits continue to roll right along as well, as the Predictalator has cashed in on nine of 12 "normal" or better positions in March. The Predictalator has now amassed an incredible 45-28 (61.6%) on all "normal" or better money lines, puck lines, and totals this season, totaling $499 in total profits for a ?$50 bettor.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB Win Totals - Over/Under Picks
    We take a look at the 2017 MLB over/under team season win totals. Highlighted, "normal" or better MLB Win Total Picks are 54-19 all-time. See free picks on the Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies and more.

    Updated Bracket Odds - Final Four
    The Predictalator simulates the Final Four 50,000 times to see how likely each remaining team is to win the NCAA Tournament

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com