New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    GameChangers Week 15 (12/15/14)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, Live ScoreCaster, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.



    Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.

    Giants vs. Redskins


    Odell Beckham Jr. caught three touchdowns as the New York Giants took advantage of an overturned touchdown at the end of the first half to beat the Washington Redskins 24-13.

    The game-defining play, the overturned touchdown at the end of the first half, occurred as time expired in the second quarter. Robert Griffin III scrambled for an eight yard touchdown but replay officials ruled that Griffin had lost possession of the football when he dove for the end zone and as a result the play was reversed.

    The Redskins led the Giants 10-7 at the half and were 52 percent likely to win. Had Griffin's touchdown stood, Washington leading 17-7 at the half, the Redskins' expected win probability increases to 70 percent.

    Adding insult to injury, the Redskins players, specifically Santana Moss, were so upset by the ruling on the field at the end of the first half that they drew unsportsmanlike conduct penalties. The penalties were assessed on the second half kickoff.

    The penalties allowed the Giants to kick off from the Redskins 35-yard line. New York, because of the field position, decided to try an onside kick. The Giants successfully recovered the onside kick and became 66 percent likely to win.

    To recap, Washington saw the team's expected win probability swing from 70 percent (if Griffin's touchdown stands) to 34 percent following the Giants onside kick, which was set up by unsportsmanlike conduct penalties related to the Griffin touchdown not counting.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    Patriots vs. Dolphins


    New England defeated Miami 41-13 to secure the Patriots sixth straight AFC East title. The Pats jumped on the Dolphins early when Jamie Collins blocked Caleb Sturgis' 41-yard field goal attempt on Miami's first possession and Kyle Arrington returned the ball 62 yards for a touchdown.

    The touchdown on a blocked field goal made New England 85 percent likely to win.

    Had Miami converted the field goal attempt, the Dolphins expected win probability increases from 15 percent to 35 percent.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.



    Bengals vs. Browns


    The Johnny Manziel era in Cleveland started with a 30-0 thrashing at the hands of rival Cincinnati. The Bengals dominated Johnny Football in his first career start. Manziel was 10-of-18 for 80 yards, two interceptions and was sacked three times.

    Pacman Jones intercepted Manziel and then did the “money” sign. Wallace Gilberry sacked Manziel and then did the “money” sign. Rey Maualuga did the “money” celebration in Johnny's face.

    Everyone did the ‘money” sign, Johnny Manziel's signature gesture, except Johnny Football.

    Ironically, even though Manziel played poorly, the interceptions and the sacks came after Cleveland was already down 17-0. By that point the Browns had just a 10 percent chance of winning.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    Bills vs. Packers


    The Buffalo Bills ended the Green Bay Packers five game winning streak and assured the team of its first eight-win season since going 9-7 in 2004 with a 21-13 victory Sunday.

    The Packers receivers who had a number of drops including one key drop by Jordy Nelson helped the Bills in the win.

    On second down at the Green Bay 6-yard line, Aaron Rodgers found Nelson wide open and hit the receiver in stride. The pass bounced off of Nelson's hands incomplete.

    Trailing 16-10, Green Bay had a 20 percent chance of winning at the end of the third quarter. Had Nelson caught the pass and ran for a touchdown, Green Bay leading 17-16, the Packers would have been 56 percent likely to win.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    Cowboys vs. Eagles


    Dez Bryant caught a career high three touchdowns and the Dallas Cowboys took control of the NFC East with a 38-27 victory Sunday night.

    The high scoring game was full of lead changes and wild swings in expected win probability.

    Dallas took an early 21-0 lead in the second quarter. The Cowboys were 85 percent likely to win. The Eagles responded with 24 unanswered points. Leading Dallas 24-21, Philly became 70 percent likely to win.

    The Boys responded with two touchdowns in three minutes. With a double-digit lead in the fourth, Dallas became 88 percent likely to win.

    For additional GameChanging notes from this game click here.

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    NFL Trends Week 16 (12/17/14)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    NFL Line Movement (12/12/14)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    03/13/2017 Highlight: Using our ResultsFinder tool, it's evident that the Predictalator is entering March Madness in incredible form. The Predictalator posted 59 "normal" or better plays in March (plays with greater than 57% confidence) and went a stellar 36-23 (61.0%) on those plays. An average $50 bettor would have profited $678 using our recommended wager sizes. After posting an outstanding 8-1 (88.9%) ATS record on "normal" or better sides in last year's NCAA Tournament, the Predictalator looks poised to produce more NCAA Tournament winners.

    NBA predictions continue to follow the same heat wave of college hoops, as all playable sides are 30-25 (54.5%) ATS in the month of March. More importantly, top plays continue to produce at a staggering clip, with all "normal" or better sides off to a solid 9-3 (75.0%) ATS mark in March, producing $284 in profits for an average $50 bettor.

    The Predictalator's NHL picks continue to cash in consistenly as "normal" or better ML and PL plays are an outstanding 32-18 (64.0%) on the season, amassing $507 in total profits. While the betting market has really tightened up with NHL in recent months, the Predictalator continues to find success and is now 449-367 (55.0%) on all playable ML and PL plays this season.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    Updated Bracket Odds - Sweet 16
    The Predictalator simulates the remainder of the NCAA Tournament 50,000 times to see how likely each remaining team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament.

    College Basketball Picks - Thursday Games
    The Predictalator has played all of Thursday's NCAA Tournament games 50,000 times to analyze chances of each team winning relative to the spread and over/under. See Oregon vs. Michigan and more.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com