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    GameChangers (04/27/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    A look at highlights from the most recent game from each NBA Playoff series utilizing Live ScoreCaster.



    Live ScoreCaster allows you to view current scores and play-by-play as well as live, updating projections from 50,000 simulations of the remaining time in each NBA game. Live ScoreCaster is totally free and available at PredictionMachine.com and for download on iTunes.

    After each thrilling NBA Playoff game, here are some highlights from the Live projections throughout each game. Click each matchup to view Live ScoreCaster chart that tells the story of that game.

    Hawks vs. Pacers

    Indiana evened the series at two wins apiece with a 91-88 victory. The Pacers used a late 8-0 run that included three pointers from Paul George and David West to take a four point lead with less than two minutes remaining. The late run increased Indiana's expected win probability from 33 percent to 81 percent.

    Indiana earned the victory but poor free throw shooting almost proved costly. The Pacers were 8 of 14 (57.1%) from the charity stripe. Paul George missed two free throws with seven seconds left that would have made it a two-possession game. After the two missed free throws Atlanta had a 31 percent chance of winning. Had George made one free throw the Hawks odds of winning would have decreased to 24 percent, two successful free throws and the Hawks have just a 17 percent chance of winning.

    Mavericks vs. Spurs

    The casual fan thought that the Spurs had won Game 3 at least three different times in the final minute. By consulting the Live ScoreCaster you knew what few others did; the game was always in doubt.
    • Manu Ginobili made a two point shot with 0:59 left, Spurs led 104-102.
    • Boris Diaw makes jumper with 0:29 left, Spurs led 106-104.
    • Manu Ginobili makes 6-foot two point shot with 0:01 left, Spurs led 108-106.
    San Antonio was never greater than 66 percent likely to win at any point in the final minute.

    Heat vs. Bobcats

    Miami easily defeated Charlotte on Saturday night to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. The Heat were 99 percent likely to win for the entire fourth quarter.

    Miami established control with a 16-4 run to close the first half. The Heat's expected win probability increased from 55 percent to 83 percent.

    Thunder vs. Grizzlies

    Oklahoma City avoided a 3-1 deficit by winning the third overtime game of the series. The Thunder's win came on an off night from Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. If Memphis loses this opening round series, the Grizzlies will look back at Game 4 as the turning point.

    Memphis blew a five point lead and a 90 percent chance of winning late in the fourth. A Beno Udrih turnover with less than a minute remaining gave the Thunder an extra possession and the opportunity to tie the game.

    Had Udrih not turned the ball over and Memphis scored to make it a two possession game, the Grizzlies would have been 89 percent instead of 50 percent likely to win in a tied game.
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