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    Bessire: QB Ranks and Projections

    by Paul Bessire, General Manager, PredictionMachine.com
    Last Updated: 10/14/2014 10:06 AM ET

    Projections for every ranked quarterback are below. Players are ranked based on PredictionMachine.com's 2013 projected statistics for what each player would be expected to do as a 16 game starter on a totally average NFL team against a completely average NFL schedule. Read more about how rankings and projections are done (also includes 2012 quarterback rankings and projections). See biographical and statistical data on each QB prospect here

    Some highlights:

    This year, I have added an impact score (0 - 10 scale) for each player that is a relative value based on the projections that can put players in context across positions and draft classes. In the score, a seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position as a rookie; an eight or above can be expected to start and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who could star. As a matter of context, at this time last year, using the same process leveraged for 2013 below (independent of actual drafting teams), the top five quarterbacks last season had scores of: Robert Griffin III (9.5), Andrew Luck (9.1), Russell Wilson (8.5), Brandon Weeden (8.0) and Nick Foles (8.0). 

    In other words, Geno Smith (8.2), would have ranked fourth on last season's board and is significantly behind RGIII and Luck in value. Smith's best comparison from my ten years of analysis is Andy Dalton. Based on his collegiate performance and measurables, Smith fits somewhere along a spectrum that ranges from Packers' backup Graham Harrell (on the low end) to Russell Wilson (on the high end). 

    As Matt Richner and I have been discussing, Landry Jones is the real intriguing piece to this draft class. Matt likens him to Kurt Warner due to his arm, passing ability and lack of mobility. For what it's worth, Jones' score (7.5) is just a tenth of a point lower than former Oklahoma Sooner Sam Bradford. Unfortunately for those looking for a quarterback in this class, we do not necessarily think either Bradford or Jones is or ever will be an above average NFL quarterback.

    Some players with lower scorers, yet higher variance (potential "boom or bust" players) include: E.J. Manuel, Tyler Bray, Tyler Wilson, Tino Sunseri, Matt Scott, Sean Renfree and Jordan Rodgers. By 2016, most of these players will be out of the league. However, rather it be scheme fit, coaching, luck and/or motivation, one or two of the players in this group could also be a quality starter in 2016. Manuel is the most likely of this list and falls just behind Matt Barkley.

    I have not mentioned Mike Glennon yet. His floor and ceiling seem to be as a career backup. For what it's worth though, from strictly a scoring perspective, Glennon (6.7) is tied with Ryan Tannehill from 2012 and is almost a full point ahead of our 2011 projection for Blaine Gabbert. 

    QB 2013 Projected Pass Data

    Rank Player Att Comp Comp% Yards TDs INTS Score
    1 Geno Smith 525 325 61.8% 3,764 23.2 13.9 8.2
    2 Landry Jones 543 322 59.3% 3,759 20.5 17.3 7.5
    3 Matt Barkley 517 303 58.5% 3,694 24.0 20.6 7.3
    4 EJ Manuel 486 293 60.4% 3,589 18.5 17.3 7.2
    5 Tyler Bray 521 290 55.6% 3,605 22.1 19.1 7.0
    6 Mike Glennon 525 305 58.0% 3,534 20.3 18.9 6.7
    7 Tyler Wilson 504 285 56.5% 3,552 18.2 19.0 6.7
    8 Ryan Nassib 510 291 57.1% 3,468 18.8 16.4 6.6
    9 Tino Sunseri 498 287 57.7% 3,456 17.3 13.8 6.6
    10 Seth Doege 536 304 56.7% 3,491 20.4 19.7 6.6
    11 Matt Scott 501 290 57.7% 3,382 18.4 17.8 6.5
    12 Colby Cameron 518 287 55.3% 3,393 18.2 14.7 6.5
    13 Matt McGloin 510 288 56.5% 3,401 18.6 14.7 6.4
    14 Sean Renfree 516 308 59.7% 3,411 17.1 17.6 6.3
    15 Ryan Aplin 515. 272 52.8% 3,302 17.0 16.9 6.2
    16 Jordan Rodgers 482 271 56.2% 3,327 16.6 15.4 6.2
    17 Casey Brockman 550 293 53.3% 3,345 17.9 18.9 6.1
    18 Zac Dysert 531 286 53.9% 3,343 17.4 20.1 6.1
    19 B.J. Daniels 499 271 54.4% 3,264 16.9 20.2 6.0
    20 Kyle Padron 477 243 51.0% 3,357 17.5 19.5 6.0
    21 Zach Maynard 505 279 55.4% 3,344 16.2 19.9 6.0
    22 Brad Sorensen 533 279 52.4% 3,299 17.3 19.0 5.8
    23 Jeff Tuel 519 297 57.1% 3,274 15.3 18.3 5.7
    24 Ryan Radcliff 507 264 52.0% 3,248 17.0 19.3 5.6
    25 Collin Klein 469 242 51.7% 3,062 15.1 18.5 5.5
    26 Matt Brown 513 261 50.9% 3,162 17.2 20.0 5.4
    27 James Vandenberg 505 283 56.0% 3,121 14.7 16.2 5.3
    28 Ross Dausin 489 248 50.7% 3,139 17.4 19.6 5.3
    29 Ryan Griffin 514 269 52.4% 3,115 16.2 19.5 5.1
    30 Mitchell Gale 477 245 51.4% 3,056 16.1 15.8 5.1
    31 Steele Jantz 484 281 58.2% 3,010 17.1 21.5 5.1
    32 Kyle Frazier 510 270 52.9% 3,022 15.4 19.4 5.1
    33 Alex Carder 491 259 52.6% 3,019 17.1 21.2 5.0
    36 Graham Wilbert 506 267 52.7% 3,028 15.2 17.8 5.0

    QB 2013 Projected Rush Data

    Rank Player Rushes Yards YPC
    1 Geno Smith 51 186 3.7
    2 Landry Jones 24 (26) (1.1)
    3 Matt Barkley 30 (12) (0.4)
    4 EJ Manuel 65 303 4.7
    5 Tyler Bray 24 (12) (0.5)
    6 Mike Glennon 39 (7) (0.2)
    7 Tyler Wilson 35 52 1.5
    8 Ryan Nassib 54 148 2.7
    9 Tino Sunseri 54 54 1.0
    10 Seth Doege 38 96 2.5
    11 Matt Scott 67 452 6.7
    12 Colby Cameron 45 207 4.6
    13 Matt McGloin 40 28 0.7
    14 Sean Renfree 35 7 0.2
    15 Ryan Aplin 84 470 5.6
    16 Jordan Rodgers 69 205 3.0
    17 Casey Brockman 78 204 2.6
    18 Zac Dysert 83 281 3.4
    19 B.J. Daniels 97 566 5.8
    20 Kyle Padron 30 122 4.0
    21 Zach Maynard 78 162 2.1
    22 Brad Sorensen 57 33 0.6
    23 Jeff Tuel 69 13 0.2
    24 Ryan Radcliff 30 11 0.3
    25 Collin Klein 124 725 5.9
    26 Matt Brown 42 164 3.9
    27 James Vandenberg 49 92 1.9
    28 Ross Dausin 49 99 2.0
    29 Ryan Griffin 34 (19) (0.6)
    30 Mitchell Gale 40 27 0.7
    31 Steele Jantz 71 291 4.1
    32 Kyle Frazier 68 300 4.4
    33 Alex Carder 51 190 3.7
    34 Graham Wilbert 45 77 1.7

     

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