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    Bessire: Pass Rush Ranks and Projections

    by Paul Bessire, PredictionMachine.com
    Last Updated: 2/25/2016 7:35 PM ET
    Projections for every ranked defensive end and outside linebacker are below. Players are ranked based on PredictionMachine.com's 2015 projected statistics for what each player would be expected to do as a 16 game starter on a totally average NFL team against a completely average NFL schedule. Read more about how rankings and projections are done (also includes 2012 rankings and projections).

    Below, we include an impact score (0 - 10 scale) for each player. This score is a relative value based on the projections that can put players in context across positions and draft classes. A score of seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position as a rookie; an eight or above can be expected to start adequately and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who could star.

    As a matter of context, at this time last year, using the same process, the top five pass rushers were Khalil Mack (9.4), Anthony Barr (9.3), Jadeveon Clowney (9.3), Ryan Shazier (9.3) and Jackson Jeffcoat (8.9). This year may have more ranked players and it is fairly deep, but last year's pass rush class was an all-time great.

    Defensive End 2015 Projected NFL Rookie Stats

    Rank Player Tackles Sacks TFL Score
    1 Vic Beasley 38.8 9.5 13.2 9.2
    2 Nate Orchard 62.7 9.0 9.9 8.9
    3 Shane Ray 56.2 7.9 10.4 8.9
    4 Dante Fowler Jr. 59.9 6.7 10.8 8.7
    5 Davis Tull 40.4 7.6 10.3 8.1
    6 Randy Gregory 59.9 8.1 9.5 8.2
    7 Lyden Trail 42.8 4.5 7.6 8.2
    8 Eli Harold 57.5 6.3 10.3 8.1
    9 Markus Golden 56.7 6.0 9.6 8.1
    10 Trey Flowers 60.6 5.4 10.7 8.0
    11 Andrew Hudson 55.6 7.0 7.7 7.7
    12 Preston Smith 48.3 6.6 8.8 7.6
    13 Marcus Hardison 46.7 6.7 8.2 7.6
    14 Robert Singletary 54.2 4.2 6.2 7.3
    15 Zach Wagenmann 34.2 7.2 8.4 7.3
    16 Cedric Reed 60.9 5.3 7.5 7.3
    17 Ryan Delaire 38.5 7.3 8.8 7.2
    18 Mario Edwards Jr. 50.5 3.9 8.2 7.1
    19 Deion Barnes 43.8 5.2 8.4 6.9
    20 Henry Anderson 55.5 5.6 8.5 6.8
    21 Marcus Rush 40.5 5.5 8.0 6.8
    22 Frank Clark 48.7 4.4 9.6 6.6
    23 Danielle Hunter 62.7 2.4 7.8 6.6
    24 Za'Darius Smith 61.2 5.5 6.6 6.5
    25 Matt Longacre 31.9 6.2 8.0 6.4
    26 Ryan Mueller 40.1 5.2 7.3 6.3
    27 Owamagbe Odighizuwa 54.4 4.7 7.2 6.3
    28 Terrell Hartsfield 38.2 6.1 7.4 6.3
    29 Corey Morrissey 50.6 4.5 6.4 6.3
    30 Jermauria Rasco 60.5 3.7 5.6 6.2
    31 Martin Ifedi 38.9 4.6 8.2 6.1
    32 Zach Hodges 28.3 6.5 7.2 6.1
    33 Kyle Emanuel 33.4 5.5 7.5 6.1
    34 Brock Hekking 46.2 4.7 6.5 5.8
    35 Shaquille Riddick 32.2 5.6 7.8 5.7
    36 Ryan Russell 47.3 3.2 5.7 5.7
    37 Arik Armstead 51.0 2.9 4.7 5.6
    38 Obum Gwacham 35.8 4.5 5.4 5.5
    39 Anthony Chckillo 43.0 3.9 5.2 5.4
    40 James Rouse 34.0 2.6 5.8 5.3
    41 Tyeler Davison 41.4 3.9 5.7 5.2
    42 B.J. Larsen 32.6 5.1 6.4 5.2
    43 Bradon Lee 24.1 3.6 5.1 5.0
    44 Trevor Harris 35.5 3.6 5.9 5.0
    45 Dan Pettinato 41.5 3.0 3.4 5.0
    46 B.J. Dubose 41.2 3.4 5.2 4.9
    47 Brian Mihalik 35.0 3.7 4.8 4.8
    48 Corey Crawford 34.6 2.5 5.9 4.8
    49 Caushaud Lyons 35.8 3.1 5.1 4.6
    50 Ray Drew 41.5 2.5 3.5 4.3
    51 Blake Lueders 31.3 2.3 4.2 4.1
    52 Travis Barnes 23.8 2.7 3.8 4.1
    53 Olsen Pierre 36.3 1.5 3.2 4.0
    54 Kristjan Sokoli 33.9 1.3 3.6 3.7
    55 Jordan Allen 21.7 2.9 2.9 3.5
    56 Josh Bredel 18.9 2.0 2.4 2.8

    Outside Linebacker 2015 Projected NFL Rookie Stats

    Rank Player Tackles Sacks TFL Score
    1 Bud Dupree 72.4 7.0 9.4 8.6
    2 Hau'oli Kikaha 46.7 8.8 10.2 8.4
    3 Max Valles 52.5 7.1 9.0 8.3
    4 Shaq Thompson 98.4 2.8 5.9 8.2
    5 Jake Ryan 86.4 2.3 8.5 8.0
    6 Martrell Spaight 101.1 2.0 7.1 8.0
    7 Cameron Lynch 80.1 5.5 7.9 7.8
    8 J.R. Tavai 55.7 5.3 8.8 7.7
    9 Zaire Anderson 81.2 2.8 7.0 7.6
    10 Lorenzo Mauldin 51.2 6.1 8.7 7.3
    11 Chi Chi Ariguzo 90.9 2.8 5.9 7.0
    12 D.J. Alexander 68.7 4.2 8.4 7.0
    13 Tony Washington 49.2 4.5 6.6 6.9
    14 Kwon Alexander 78.3 1.9 6.0 6.8
    15 Dyshawn Davis 63.9 2.0 6.9 6.7
    16 Cole Farrand 91.9 1.2 4.5 6.6
    17 Tony Bell 39.0 4.8 7.7 6.3
    18 Chase Williams 72.7 3.0 5.7 6.3
    19 James Vaughters 47.4 4.8 6.4 6.3
    20 David Helton 99.5 2.0 4.2 6.3
    21 Stephon Sanders 63.0 3.1 6.9 6.1
    22 Houston Bates 35.5 5.1 7.3 6.1
    23 Mark Nzeocha 72.1 2.2 3.9 6.0
    24 Josh Keyes 56.2 3.4 6.3 6.1
    25 Geno Grissom 47.2 3.7 5.8 6.0
    26 Jonathan Truman 95.0 1.1 3.7 6.0
    27 Xzavier Dickson 41.0 5.8 7.0 6.0
    28 Michael Doctor 64.8 1.6 5.1 5.9
    29 Michael Orakpo 45.9 4.5 5.6 5.8
    30 Norkeithus Otis 42.0 4.5 5.6 5.9
    31 Junior Sylvestre 69.6 2.4 5.1 5.6
    32 Reshard Cliett 43.9 4.4 5.7 5.6
    33 C.J. Olaniyan 42.9 3.4 5.1 5.5
    34 Kyle Woestmann 38.5 3.1 5.4 5.4
    35 Matt Robinson 58.5 1.2 4.9 5.2
    36 Neiron Ball 58.0 2.5 3.2 5.1
    37 Alani Fua 47.2 3.3 5.4 5.1
    38 Collin Ellis 66.1 2.4 3.4 5.0
    39 Derrick Malone 62.2 1.5 2.6 4.9
    40 Travis Hughes 60.4 1.2 3.6 4.8
    41 Jabral Johnson 58.6 1.2 2.8 4.7
    42 Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil 34.4 3.9 4.3 4.6
    43 Edmond Robinson 41.1 1.3 4.8 4.3
    44 Maurice Falls 33.9 2.6 3.4 4.4
    45 Sonny Puletasi 23.2 1.7 3.6 3.4
    46 Chris McCain 44.3 2.5 4.6 4.4
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