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    Bessire: QB Ranks and Projections

    by Paul Bessire, PredictionMachine.com
    Last Updated: 2/25/2016 7:35 PM ET
    Projections for every ranked quarterback are below. Players are ranked based on PredictionMachine.com's 2015 projected statistics for what each player would be expected to do as a 16 game starter on a totally average NFL team against a completely average NFL schedule. Read more about how rankings and projections are done.

    Some highlights:

    We have included an impact score (0 - 10 scale) for each player. This score is a relative value based on the projections that can put players in context across positions and draft classes. A score of seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position as a rookie; an eight or above can be expected to start adequately and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who could star.

    As a matter of context, at this time last year, using the same process, the top five quarterbacks had scores of: Teddy Bridgewater (8.2), Johnny Manziel (8.2), Tahj Boyd (8.0), Blake Bortles (7.8), AJ McCarron (7.6) and Derek Carr (7.5).

    In 2012, as one would expect, given what we seen in the last three seasons, the rankings looked very different. At that time, the top five quarterbacks had scores of: Robert Griffin III (9.5), Andrew Luck (9.1), Russell Wilson (8.5), Brandon Weeden (7.9) and Nick Foles (7.9).

    In other words, Marcus Mariota (9.5) is at a 2012 Griffin/Luck/Wilson, while Teddy Bridgewater would rank ahead of Jameis Winston (8.1) and all others had he been in this class. The best quarterback in this year's draft class would have ranked in the ten best overall among the Top 250 in 2014's total prospect rankings (spoiler: Mariota is going to rank in the top ten overall for 2015 as well). Only three quarterbacks from this class - Mariota, Winston and Bryce Petty (8.0) - even really belong in the NFL.

    Some players with lower scorers, yet higher variance (potential "boom or bust" players) include: Sean Mannion, Taylor Kelly, Taylor Heinicke, Hutson Mason and Bryan Bennett . By 2018, most of these players will be out of the league, however, whether it be due to scheme fit, coaching, luck and/or motivation, one or two of the players in this group could also be a quality starter in 2018.

    QB 2015 Projected NFL Rookie Pass Data

    Rank Player Att Comp Comp% Yards TDs INTS Score
    1 Marcus Mariota 501 307 61.2% 3,957 25 14 9.5
    2 Jameis Winston 516 314 60.9% 3,875 21 19 8.1
    3 Bryce Petty 503 289 57.4% 3,764 21 14 8.0
    4 Brett Hundley 506 302 59.6% 3,542 19 15 7.4
    5 Garrett Grayson 505 282 55.9% 3,648 20 16 7.3
    6 Shane Carden 549 309 56.4% 3,653 19 17 7.2
    7 Blake Sims 483 282 58.4% 3,551 20 16 7.2
    8 Bo Wallace 504 286 56.8% 3,558 19 20 6.9
    9 Sean Mannion 531 315 59.3% 3,591 18 17 6.8
    10 Connor Halliday 577 313 54.2% 3,610 20 21 6.8
    11 Jake Waters 498 271 54.5% 3,470 18 17 6.8
    12 Taylor Kelly 500 276 55.1% 3,351 21 16 6.6
    13 Taylor Heinicke 533 285 53.6% 3,441 20 20 6.5
    14 Hutson Mason 469 281 59.8% 3,291 20 13 6.3
    15 Grant Hedrick 481 270 56.2% 3,312 17 19 6.1
    16 Bryan Bennett 475 239 50.2% 3,188 18 18 5.9
    17 Cody Fajardo 507 270 53.3% 3,056 16 18 5.6
    18 Jameill Showers 473 240 50.7% 2,819 15 16 4.5
    19 Brandon Bridge 487 236 48.5% 2,832 16 20 4.5

    QB 2015 Projected Rush Data

    Player Rushes Yards YPC
    Marcus Mariota 76 617 8.1
    Jameis Winston 48 148 3.1
    Bryce Petty 57 174 3.0
    Brett Hundley 102 584 5.7
    Garrett Grayson 48 123 2.6
    Shane Carden 65 156 2.4
    Blake Sims 58 361 6.2
    Bo Wallace 84 302 3.6
    Sean Mannion 36 (35) (1.0)
    Connor Halliday 35 (7) (0.2)
    Jake Waters 95 445 4.7
    Taylor Kelly 87 405 4.7
    Taylor Heinicke 66 264 4.0
    Hutson Mason 34 54 1.6
    Grant Hedrick 75 409 5.5
    Bryan Bennett 90 607 6.8
    Cody Fajardo 117 872 7.4
    Jameill Showers 59 287 4.9
    Brandon Bridge 77 375 4.9
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