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    Bessire: RB Ranks and Projections

    by Paul Bessire, PredictionMachine.com
    Last Updated: 5/1/2016 1:00 PM ET
    Projections for every ranked running back are below. Players are ranked based on PredictionMachine.com's 2016 projected statistics for what each player would be expected to do as a 16 game starter on a totally average NFL team against a completely average NFL schedule. Read more about how rankings and projections are done (also includes 2012 rankings and projections).

    Below, we include an impact score (0 - 10 scale) for each player. This score is a relative value based on the projections that can put players in context across positions and draft classes. A score of seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position as a rookie; an eight or above can be expected to start adequately and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who could star.

    As a matter of context, at this time last year, using the same process, the top five running backs had scores of: Melvin Gordon (9.4), Todd Gurley (9.2), Tevin Coleman (9.1), Duke Johnson (8.7) and Karlos Williams (8.4). In other words, there is just ONE running back in this year's class that would rank among the top five from last year. That player, Ezekiel Elliott (9.2), is a clear top ten prospect in this year's draft.

    Projected NFL Rookie Rush Stats - 2016

    Rank Player Rushes Rush Yds YPC Rec. Rec. Yds TDs Score
    1 Ezekiel Elliott 246 1,165 4.7 32 237 11 9.2
    2 Derrick Henry 284 1,195 4.2 22 190 12 8.3
    3 Jordan Howard 262 1,108 4.2 28 215 9 8.0
    4 Paul Perkins 244 1,014 4.2 44 321 9 8.0
    5 DeAndre Washington 226 957 4.2 49 351 7 7.8
    6 Wendell Smallwood 240 1,036 4.3 38 254 6 7.8
    7 Kenneth Dixon 229 867 3.8 46 380 11 7.7
    8 C.J. Prosise 211 974 4.6 41 278 8 7.7
    9 Alex Collins 260 1,087 4.2 24 155 10 7.6
    10 Josh Ferguson 207 800 3.9 62 430 5 7.3
    11 Travis Greene 229 891 3.9 34 244 12 7.2
    12 Devontae Booker 266 965 3.6 51 361 8 7.0
    13 Tyler Ervin 257 921 3.6 51 341 7 6.8
    14 Jalen Richard 223 843 3.8 41 291 8 6.7
    15 Devon Johnson 189 849 4.5 21 191 6 6.5
    16 Kenyan Drake 176 733 4.2 46 371 4 6.5
    17 Keenan Reynolds 242 780 3.2 15 308 11 6.3
    18 Tre Madden 190 720 3.8 35 255 6 6.2
    19 Jordan Canzeri 221 840 3.8 34 260 8 5.9
    20 Aaron Green 235 883 3.8 31 199 7 5.8
    21 Marshaun Coprich 230 822 3.6 20 127 8 5.7
    22 Kevin Taylor 251 801 3.2 30 213 8 5.6
    23 Leon Allen 200 734 3.7 35 258 6 5.5
    24 Tra Carson 233 839 3.6 35 234 6 5.5
    25 Jonathan William 195 764 3.9 21 191 5 5.2
    26 Peyton Barber 252 841 3.3 26 199 9 5.1
    27 Daniel Lasco 182 674 3.7 21 153 6 5.1
    28 Marteze Waller 239 744 3.1 35 212 7 5.1
    29 Jacobi Green 194 670 3.5 27 200 6 5.0

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