New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
    All Live Projections

    Ed Reed (04/22/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    Leading up to the NFL Draft we will take a look back at some of the big moves during the NFL Free Agency. We will grade each signing, analyze fantasy impact, and look at prop bets for each player acquired where appropriate. This is all done through 50,000 simulations of last season with the signed players joining their new teams. Previously covered: Mike WallaceWes WelkerReggie BushCarson PalmerMatt Flynn.

    The Contract:

    Houston signed Reed to a three-year deal worth $15 million, $5 million guaranteed. The Texans considered retaining former safety Glover Quin but never could agree to terms. Quin signed a five-year $23.5 million deal with Detroit.

    Texans’ Motivation:

    In addition to replacing starting safety Glover Quin, Texans owner Bob McNair said Houston's secondary needed more veteran leadership. Reed has played in 160 games over eleven seasons including fifteen playoff games.

    Twitter Reactions:

    The Numbers:

    Below is a look at Reed’s numbers over his eleven-year career. In the past three seasons, including the playoffs, Reed has a league-high 17 interceptions.

    Season Games Tackles Interceptions
    2002 16 85 5
    2003 16 71 7
    2004 16 76 9
    2005 10 37 1
    2006 16 60 5
    2007 16 39 7
    2008 16 41 9
    2009 12 50 3
    2010 10 37 8
    2011 16 52 3
    2012 16 58 4

    Our Projections:

    Point of clarification, we are simulating Reed on the field for Houston as the starting safety. It is important to remember that these projections are rough estimates since we are using last year's schedule, assuming all players are healthy, and not accounting for all the changes throughout the NFL.

    Free Agent Signing Grade: B

    As a baseline, we simulated the entire season without the addition of Ed Reed. On average we projected the Texans to win 11.1 games while losing 4.9. Houston wins the AFC South by 4.5 games.

    After accounting for the addition of Reed as the starting safety Houston wins on average 11.2 games and loses 4.8 games. The Texans win the AFC South by 4.8 games. Fun note, when we take Reed (and only Reed) off of the Ravens they win 0.9 fewer games (9.5 with, 8.6 without) than when he is on the team.

    At 34, Reed is no longer the player that won NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 2004. However, according to Pro Football Focus Reed was still a top-20 safety in coverage in 2012. Reed did manage four interceptions last season returning one for a touchdown. Reed replaces a younger safety (Quin 27 years old) but his experience should make up any difference. With a favorable contract the Reed signing grades out to a B.

    Fantasy Impact:

    Houston’s Defense: The Texans were a preseason top-5 pick a year ago and finished as the 7th overall fantasy defense in 2012. Houston is currently projected as the 5th best defense in fantasy heading into this season. The addition of Reed increases the Texans’ interception ratio from 2.7% to 3.4%. Houston should produce solid fantasy points week in and week out.

    Ed Reed (Individual Defensive Player Leagues): The Texans have one of the better defenses in the league, which should allow Reed to play his normal centerfield position. Reed does not play in the box enough to provide consistent value in tackle-heavy formats. However if you participate in a “big play” league then Reed may provide value late in your draft.

    Print This Article
    2013 NFL Draft Props (04/23/13)
    Matt Flynn (04/20/13)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!





    The Predictalator

    03/27/2017 Highlight: With the start of MLB right around the corner, we can use our ResultsFinder tool to uncover some past success in baseball. April has historically been a great month for the Predictalator, as evidenced by last season's outstanding 41-22 (65.1%) record on all "normal" or better ML, RL, and O/U plays. A $50 bettor would have profited a whopping $1,002 using our recommended wager sizes in April. MLB season win totals have also been extremely fruitful in the history of this site, with the Predictalator producing an outstanding 54-19 (74.0%) record on all playable win totals.

    Recommended Features



    MLB Win Totals - Over/Under Picks
    We take a look at the 2017 MLB over/under team season win totals. Highlighted, "normal" or better MLB Win Total Picks are 54-19 all-time. See free picks on the Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies and more.

    Updated Bracket Odds - Final Four
    The Predictalator simulates the Final Four 50,000 times to see how likely each remaining team is to win the NCAA Tournament



    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by