Bessire: 2013 Ranking Rookies

4/28/2013

Utilizing our unique, objective approach to player projections and development, PredictionMachine.com presents its 2013 NFL Draft content, including a Mock Draft, Position-by-Position Reports, Statistical Breakdowns and Future Projections for all prospects in the 2013 NFL Draft. Content is FREE from PredictionMachine.com's Paul Bessire and John Ewing as well as NFL Draft Expert Matt Richner.

This specific article (and the projections analysis we have already done to supplement it) is my favorite article of the year every year. It shows off just about everything we can do with our technology, from generating inputs for new players, to predicting playing time, health and coaching styles, to playing through entire seasons 50,000 times. It also signifies the beginning of football season. From late March, when we first started publishing analysis on the draft, through January, 2014, football will be a priority. I spent much of the last six weeks preparing the analysis in this NFL Draft section and will continue to work on analysis and build tools for the NFL and college football seasons until they begin. And now we know where these new players are going.

Here are last three years' articles: Ranking the 2012 RookiesRanking the Draft Classes 2012Ranking the 2011 RookiesRanking the Draft Classes 2011Ranking the 2010 Rookies and Ranking the Draft Classes 2010. It's hard to argue against the obvious top three of Robert Griffin III, Luke Kuechly and Andrew Luck as well as Harrison Smith, Casey Hayward and Kendall Reyes in 2012, Andy Dalton, Aldon Smith, Marcel Dareus and A.J. Green in 2011 or Ndamukong Suh and Eric Berry in 2010 as some of the most positively impactful rookies in recent years. Teams benefitting from rookie classses can make big leaps like Detroit, Tampa Bay and Kansas City in 2010, Cincinnati, Detroit, Denver and the New York Giants in 2011 and Cincinnati, Minnesota, Green Bay and Indianapolis in 2012. There are some hits and misses after those players and teams, but that's what makes this fun.

Player rankings below are based on positive impact from output of the upcoming season played 50,000 times. How the players translate to the 2013 season as rookies and how the fit on their new teams are crucial. In a sense, this is essentially a fantasy football draft of every rookie (that was drafted), where contribution of non-skill position players can also be measured (and for actual fantasy football drafts, consider this an early look at the skill position players who will be of value as rookies).

Obviously, playing time, role and opportunity matter. For instance, our top player in 2011, Andy Dalton, appeared at the time to be the most likely quarterback to start from Week 1. For a complete list of the top prospects (for the long-term) based on this analysis, check out my Top 250 2013 NFL Draft Rankings from before the draft.

How Do We This?
To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factor college stats, previous utilization and strength of competition, combine measurables, role and expected utilization of the player's NFL team, previous performance of a similar player in that role for this coaching staff and previous performance of similar rookies at that position in general. This allows us to predict both the player's projected ratio stats such as yards-per-carry, percentage of tackles made while on the field and passing completion percentage, as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming NFL season. Then we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact for his NFL team in his first year. It's a system that I have applied to the previous three drafts and with great success. These projections have highlighted the likely success of Casey Hayward, Harrison Smith, Bobby Wagner, Vick Ballard, Andy Dalton A.J. Green, Von Miller, Aldon Smith, J.J. Watt, DeMarco Murray, Percy Harvin, Jerod Mayo, Louis Delmas, Sean Smith, Ryan Clady, Eric Berry, Sean Weatherspoon and even Super Bowl hero Tracy Porter, while suggesting that Dontari Poe, A.J. Jenkins, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Delone Carter, Jonathan Baldwin, Glenn Dorsey, Vernon Gholston, Everette Brown and even Matt Ryan were/are overrated.

We also take this analysis and apply it to teams to rank the impact of the rookie classes of all 32 teams. See our NFL Rookie Class Rankings 2013 for more.

2013 NFL Rookie Rankings

Rank Player Pos Team
1 Luke Joeckel OT Jacksonville
2 Jarvis Jones OLB Pittsburgh
3 Chance Warmack OG Tennessee
4 Tavon Austin WR St. Louis
5 Alec Ogletree ILB St. Louis
6 Lane Johnson OT Philadelphia
7 D.J. Fluker OT San Diego
8 Matt Elam S Baltimore
9 Bjoern Werner DE Indianapolis
10 Sharrif Floyd DT Minnesota
11 D.J. Hayden CB Oakland
12 Manti Te'o ILB San Diego
13 Eric Fisher OT Kansas City
14 Dee Milliner CB NY Jets
15 Eddie Lacy RB Green Bay
16 Sheldon Richardson DT NY Jets
17 Datone Jones DE Green Bay
18 Zach Ertz TE Philadelphia
19 Giovani Bernard RB Cincinnati
20 Cornellius (Tank) Carradine DE San Francisco
21 Terrance Williams WR Dallas
22 Tyler Eifert TE Cincinnati
23 Damontre Moore DE NY Giants
24 Jonathan Cooper OG Arizona
25 Star Lotulelei DT Carolina
26 Johnathan Cyprien S Jacksonville
27 Xavier Rhodes CB Minnesota
28 Geno Smith QB NY Jets
29 Travis Frederick OC Dallas
30 Arthur Brown OLB Baltimore
31 Kevin Minter ILB Arizona
32 Alex Okafor DE Arizona
33 Leon McFadden CB Cleveland
34 Cordarrelle Patterson WR Minnesota
35 Kyle Long OG Chicago
36 Dwayne Gratz CB Jacksonville
37 Justin Pugh OT NY Giants
38 Sio Moore OLB Oakland
39 Darius Slay CB Detroit
40 Kenny Vaccaro S New Orleans
41 Kawann Short DT Carolina
42 Ezekiel Ansah DE Detroit
43 Larry Warford OG Detroit
44 Khaseem Greene OLB Chicago
45 Brian Winters OG NY Jets
46 Eric Reid S San Francisco
47 Johnthan Banks CB Tampa Bay
48 EJ Manuel QB Buffalo
49 Robert Woods WR Buffalo
50 T.J. McDonald S St. Louis
51 David Amerson CB Washington
52 Desmond Trufant CB Atlanta
53 Logan Ryan CB New England
54 Terry Hawthorne CB Pittsburgh
55 Stedman Bailey WR St. Louis
56 Sylvester Williams DT Denver
57 Dallas Thomas OG Miami
58 Jamie Collins OLB New England
59 Johnathan Hankins DT NY Giants
60 Phillip Thomas S Washington
61 Bennie Logan DT Philadelphia
62 Jonathan Bostic ILB Chicago
63 Trevardo Williams DE Houston
64 DeAndre Hopkins WR Houston
65 Sean Porter OLB Cincinnati
66 Barkevious Mingo DE Cleveland
67 Christopher Jones DT Houston
68 Dion Jordan OLB Miami
69 Brandon Williams DT Baltimore
70 Margus Hunt DE Cincinnati
71 Will Davis CB Miami
72 D.J. Swearinger S Houston
73 Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB Tennessee
74 John Jenkins DT New Orleans
75 John Simon DE Baltimore
76 Sam Montgomery DE Houston
77 Travis Kelce TE Kansas City
78 Jordan Hill DT Seattle
79 Kiko Alonso ILB Buffalo
80 Brandon Jenkins OLB Washington
81 Devin Taylor DE Detroit
82 Jamar Taylor CB Miami
83 Corey Lemonier DE San Francisco
84 Ricky Wagner OT Baltimore
85 Kayvon Webster CB Denver
86 David Bakhtiari OT Green Bay
87 William Gholston DE Tampa Bay
88 Josh Boyce WR New England
89 Jesse Williams DT Seattle
90 Duron Harmon S New England
91 Jordan Mills OT Chicago
92 Nathan Palmer OLB Green Bay
93 Hugh Thornton OG Indianapolis
94 Zaviar Gooden OLB Tennessee
95 Akeem Spence DT Tampa Bay
96 Micah Hyde CB Green Bay
97 Gerald Hodges OLB Minnesota
98 Terron Armstead OT New Orleans
99 Tyrann Mathieu CB Arizona
100 Markus Wheaton WR Pittsburgh
101 Earl Wolff S Philadelphia
102 Duke Williams S Buffalo
103 Montee Ball RB Denver
104 Zac Stacy RB St. Louis
105 Justin Hunter WR Tennessee
106 Bacarri Rambo S Washington
107 Oday Aboushi OG NY Jets
108 Brandon McGee CB St. Louis
109 Jordan Reed TE Washington
110 Shawn Williams S Cincinnati
111 Quanterus Smith DE Denver
112 Le'veon Bell RB Pittsburgh
113 Vance McDonald TE San Francisco
114 Malliciah Goodman DE Atlanta
115 Dustin Hopkins K Buffalo
116 Johnathan Franklin RB Green Bay
117 Dion Sims TE Miami
118 Robert Alford CB Atlanta
119 J. J. Wilcox S Dallas
120 Tourek Williams DE San Diego
121 Lavar Edwards DE Tennessee
122 Ryan Swope WR Arizona
123 Stansly Maponga DE Atlanta
124 A.J. Klein ILB Carolina
125 B.W. Webb CB Dallas
126 Matt Barkley QB Philadelphia
127 Barrett Jones OC St. Louis
128 Joseph Randle RB Dallas
129 Brennan Williams OT Houston
130 Cooper Taylor S NY Giants
131 Khaled Holmes OC Indianapolis
132 Knile Davis RB Kansas City
133 Aaron Dobson WR New England
134 Stepfan Taylor RB Arizona
135 Samuel Barrington OLB Green Bay
136 J.C. Tretter OG Green Bay
137 Christine Michael RB Seattle
138 Mychal Rivera TE Oakland
139 Menelik Watson OT Oakland
140 Keenan Allen WR San Diego
141 Kapron Lewis-Moore DE Baltimore
142 Tanner Hawkinson OT Cincinnati
143 Nick Kasa TE Oakland
144 Daimion Stafford S Tennessee
145 Jonathan Meeks S Buffalo
146 John Boyett S Indianapolis
147 Shamarko Thomas S Pittsburgh
148 Joe Kruger DE Philadelphia
149 Kenjon Barner RB Carolina
150 Cobi Hamilton WR Cincinnati
151 Sam Martin K Detroit
152 Michael Williams TE Detroit
153 Sanders Commings CB Kansas City
154 Gavin Escobar TE Dallas
155 Quinton Patton WR San Francisco
156 Latavius Murray RB Oakland
157 Jordan Poyer CB Philadelphia
158 Brian Schwenke OC Tennessee
159 Ryan Jensen OG Baltimore
160 Chris Gragg TE Buffalo
161 Nico Johnson ILB Kansas City
162 Caleb Sturgis K Miami
163 Steve Beauharnais ILB New England
164 William Campbell DT NY Jets
165 David Bass DE Oakland
166 Vinston Painter OT Denver
167 Michael Mauti ILB Minnesota
168 Stacy McGee DT Oakland
169 Tharold Simon CB Seattle
170 Earl Watford OG Arizona
171 Joshua Evans S Jacksonville
172 Jeff Locke P Minnesota
173 Jeff Baca OG Minnesota
174 Tommy Bohanon FB NY Jets
175 Kenny Stills WR New Orleans
176 Josh Boyd DT Green Bay
177 Ace Sanders WR Jacksonville
178 Marquess Wilson WR Chicago
179 Tavarres King WR Denver
180 Michael Bowie OT Seattle
181 Quinton Dial DE San Francisco
182 Montori Hughes DT Indianapolis
183 Kyle Juszczyk FB Baltimore
184 Edmund Kugbila OG Carolina
185 Reid Fragel OT Cincinnati
186 DeVonte Holloman OLB Dallas
187 Theo Riddick RB Detroit
188 Jelani Jenkins OLB Miami
189 Steve Williams CB San Diego
190 Mike James RB Tampa Bay
191 Mike Gillislee RB Miami
192 David King DE Philadelphia
193 Jared Smith DT Seattle
194 Andre Ellington RB Arizona
195 Zeke Motta S Atlanta
196 Aaron Mellette WR Baltimore
197 Jamoris Slaughter S Cleveland
198 David Quessenberry OT Houston
199 Everett Dawkins DT Minnesota
200 Vince Williams ILB Pittsburgh
201 Ty Powell OLB Seattle
202 Cornelius Washington DE Chicago
203 Kerwynn Williams RB Indianapolis
204 Kemal Ishmael S Atlanta
205 Ryan Seymour OG Seattle
206 Nick Moody OLB San Francisco
207 Marc Anthony CB Baltimore
208 Marquise Goodwin WR Buffalo
209 Michael Buchanan DE New England
210 Eric Herman OG NY Giants
211 Chris Harper WR Seattle
212 Khalid Wooten CB Tennessee
213 Demetrius McCray CB Jacksonville
214 Ryan Griffin TE Houston
215 Garrett Gilkey OG Cleveland
216 Levine Toilolo TE Atlanta
217 Eric Kush OC Kansas City
218 Nicholas Williams DT Pittsburgh
219 Chris Thompson RB Washington
220 Jawan Jamison RB Washington
221 Jeremy Harris CB Jacksonville
222 Travis Bond OG Minnesota
223 Rex Burkhead RB Cincinnati
224 Alan Bonner WR Houston
225 Denard Robinson WR Jacksonville
226 Brandon Hepburn ILB Detroit
227 Steven Means OLB Tampa Bay
228 Armonty Bryant DE Cleveland
229 Mike Catapano DE Kansas City
230 Rufus Johnson DE New Orleans
231 Braden Wilson FB Kansas City
232 Carter Bykowski OT San Francisco
233 Corey Fuller WR Detroit
234 T.J. Johnson OC Cincinnati
235 D.C. Jefferson TE Arizona
236 Don Jones S Miami
237 Marcus Cooper CB San Francisco
238 Justin Brown WR Pittsburgh
239 Charles Johnson WR Green Bay
240 Landry Jones QB Pittsburgh
241 Tyler Wilson QB Oakland
242 Marcus Lattimore RB San Francisco
243 Luke Willson TE Seattle
244 Justice Cunningham TE Indianapolis
245 Kevin Dorsey WR Green Bay
246 B.J. Daniels QB San Francisco
247 Mike Glennon QB Tampa Bay
248 Spencer Ware RB Seattle
249 Michael Cox RB NY Giants
250 Brice Butler WR Oakland
251 Zac Dysert QB Denver
252 Ryan Nassib QB NY Giants
253 Sean Renfree QB Atlanta
254 Brad Sorensen QB San Diego

 

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