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    Bessire: 2013 Ranking Rookies

    4/28/2013
    Last Updated: 8/26/2014 8:26 AM ET

    Utilizing our unique, objective approach to player projections and development, PredictionMachine.com presents its 2013 NFL Draft content, including a Mock Draft, Position-by-Position Reports, Statistical Breakdowns and Future Projections for all prospects in the 2013 NFL Draft. Content is FREE from PredictionMachine.com's Paul Bessire and John Ewing as well as NFL Draft Expert Matt Richner.

    This specific article (and the projections analysis we have already done to supplement it) is my favorite article of the year every year. It shows off just about everything we can do with our technology, from generating inputs for new players, to predicting playing time, health and coaching styles, to playing through entire seasons 50,000 times. It also signifies the beginning of football season. From late March, when we first started publishing analysis on the draft, through January, 2014, football will be a priority. I spent much of the last six weeks preparing the analysis in this NFL Draft section and will continue to work on analysis and build tools for the NFL and college football seasons until they begin. And now we know where these new players are going.

    Here are last three years' articles: Ranking the 2012 RookiesRanking the Draft Classes 2012Ranking the 2011 RookiesRanking the Draft Classes 2011Ranking the 2010 Rookies and Ranking the Draft Classes 2010. It's hard to argue against the obvious top three of Robert Griffin III, Luke Kuechly and Andrew Luck as well as Harrison Smith, Casey Hayward and Kendall Reyes in 2012, Andy Dalton, Aldon Smith, Marcel Dareus and A.J. Green in 2011 or Ndamukong Suh and Eric Berry in 2010 as some of the most positively impactful rookies in recent years. Teams benefitting from rookie classses can make big leaps like Detroit, Tampa Bay and Kansas City in 2010, Cincinnati, Detroit, Denver and the New York Giants in 2011 and Cincinnati, Minnesota, Green Bay and Indianapolis in 2012. There are some hits and misses after those players and teams, but that's what makes this fun.

    Player rankings below are based on positive impact from output of the upcoming season played 50,000 times. How the players translate to the 2013 season as rookies and how the fit on their new teams are crucial. In a sense, this is essentially a fantasy football draft of every rookie (that was drafted), where contribution of non-skill position players can also be measured (and for actual fantasy football drafts, consider this an early look at the skill position players who will be of value as rookies).

    Obviously, playing time, role and opportunity matter. For instance, our top player in 2011, Andy Dalton, appeared at the time to be the most likely quarterback to start from Week 1. For a complete list of the top prospects (for the long-term) based on this analysis, check out my Top 250 2013 NFL Draft Rankings from before the draft.

    How Do We This?
    To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factor college stats, previous utilization and strength of competition, combine measurables, role and expected utilization of the player's NFL team, previous performance of a similar player in that role for this coaching staff and previous performance of similar rookies at that position in general. This allows us to predict both the player's projected ratio stats such as yards-per-carry, percentage of tackles made while on the field and passing completion percentage, as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming NFL season. Then we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact for his NFL team in his first year. It's a system that I have applied to the previous three drafts and with great success. These projections have highlighted the likely success of Casey Hayward, Harrison Smith, Bobby Wagner, Vick Ballard, Andy Dalton A.J. Green, Von Miller, Aldon Smith, J.J. Watt, DeMarco Murray, Percy Harvin, Jerod Mayo, Louis Delmas, Sean Smith, Ryan Clady, Eric Berry, Sean Weatherspoon and even Super Bowl hero Tracy Porter, while suggesting that Dontari Poe, A.J. Jenkins, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Delone Carter, Jonathan Baldwin, Glenn Dorsey, Vernon Gholston, Everette Brown and even Matt Ryan were/are overrated.

    We also take this analysis and apply it to teams to rank the impact of the rookie classes of all 32 teams. See our NFL Rookie Class Rankings 2013 for more.

    2013 NFL Rookie Rankings

    Rank Player Pos Team
    1 Luke Joeckel OT Jacksonville
    2 Jarvis Jones OLB Pittsburgh
    3 Chance Warmack OG Tennessee
    4 Tavon Austin WR St. Louis
    5 Alec Ogletree ILB St. Louis
    6 Lane Johnson OT Philadelphia
    7 D.J. Fluker OT San Diego
    8 Matt Elam S Baltimore
    9 Bjoern Werner DE Indianapolis
    10 Sharrif Floyd DT Minnesota
    11 D.J. Hayden CB Oakland
    12 Manti Te'o ILB San Diego
    13 Eric Fisher OT Kansas City
    14 Dee Milliner CB NY Jets
    15 Eddie Lacy RB Green Bay
    16 Sheldon Richardson DT NY Jets
    17 Datone Jones DE Green Bay
    18 Zach Ertz TE Philadelphia
    19 Giovani Bernard RB Cincinnati
    20 Cornellius (Tank) Carradine DE San Francisco
    21 Terrance Williams WR Dallas
    22 Tyler Eifert TE Cincinnati
    23 Damontre Moore DE NY Giants
    24 Jonathan Cooper OG Arizona
    25 Star Lotulelei DT Carolina
    26 Johnathan Cyprien S Jacksonville
    27 Xavier Rhodes CB Minnesota
    28 Geno Smith QB NY Jets
    29 Travis Frederick OC Dallas
    30 Arthur Brown OLB Baltimore
    31 Kevin Minter ILB Arizona
    32 Alex Okafor DE Arizona
    33 Leon McFadden CB Cleveland
    34 Cordarrelle Patterson WR Minnesota
    35 Kyle Long OG Chicago
    36 Dwayne Gratz CB Jacksonville
    37 Justin Pugh OT NY Giants
    38 Sio Moore OLB Oakland
    39 Darius Slay CB Detroit
    40 Kenny Vaccaro S New Orleans
    41 Kawann Short DT Carolina
    42 Ezekiel Ansah DE Detroit
    43 Larry Warford OG Detroit
    44 Khaseem Greene OLB Chicago
    45 Brian Winters OG NY Jets
    46 Eric Reid S San Francisco
    47 Johnthan Banks CB Tampa Bay
    48 EJ Manuel QB Buffalo
    49 Robert Woods WR Buffalo
    50 T.J. McDonald S St. Louis
    51 David Amerson CB Washington
    52 Desmond Trufant CB Atlanta
    53 Logan Ryan CB New England
    54 Terry Hawthorne CB Pittsburgh
    55 Stedman Bailey WR St. Louis
    56 Sylvester Williams DT Denver
    57 Dallas Thomas OG Miami
    58 Jamie Collins OLB New England
    59 Johnathan Hankins DT NY Giants
    60 Phillip Thomas S Washington
    61 Bennie Logan DT Philadelphia
    62 Jonathan Bostic ILB Chicago
    63 Trevardo Williams DE Houston
    64 DeAndre Hopkins WR Houston
    65 Sean Porter OLB Cincinnati
    66 Barkevious Mingo DE Cleveland
    67 Christopher Jones DT Houston
    68 Dion Jordan OLB Miami
    69 Brandon Williams DT Baltimore
    70 Margus Hunt DE Cincinnati
    71 Will Davis CB Miami
    72 D.J. Swearinger S Houston
    73 Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB Tennessee
    74 John Jenkins DT New Orleans
    75 John Simon DE Baltimore
    76 Sam Montgomery DE Houston
    77 Travis Kelce TE Kansas City
    78 Jordan Hill DT Seattle
    79 Kiko Alonso ILB Buffalo
    80 Brandon Jenkins OLB Washington
    81 Devin Taylor DE Detroit
    82 Jamar Taylor CB Miami
    83 Corey Lemonier DE San Francisco
    84 Ricky Wagner OT Baltimore
    85 Kayvon Webster CB Denver
    86 David Bakhtiari OT Green Bay
    87 William Gholston DE Tampa Bay
    88 Josh Boyce WR New England
    89 Jesse Williams DT Seattle
    90 Duron Harmon S New England
    91 Jordan Mills OT Chicago
    92 Nathan Palmer OLB Green Bay
    93 Hugh Thornton OG Indianapolis
    94 Zaviar Gooden OLB Tennessee
    95 Akeem Spence DT Tampa Bay
    96 Micah Hyde CB Green Bay
    97 Gerald Hodges OLB Minnesota
    98 Terron Armstead OT New Orleans
    99 Tyrann Mathieu CB Arizona
    100 Markus Wheaton WR Pittsburgh
    101 Earl Wolff S Philadelphia
    102 Duke Williams S Buffalo
    103 Montee Ball RB Denver
    104 Zac Stacy RB St. Louis
    105 Justin Hunter WR Tennessee
    106 Bacarri Rambo S Washington
    107 Oday Aboushi OG NY Jets
    108 Brandon McGee CB St. Louis
    109 Jordan Reed TE Washington
    110 Shawn Williams S Cincinnati
    111 Quanterus Smith DE Denver
    112 Le'veon Bell RB Pittsburgh
    113 Vance McDonald TE San Francisco
    114 Malliciah Goodman DE Atlanta
    115 Dustin Hopkins K Buffalo
    116 Johnathan Franklin RB Green Bay
    117 Dion Sims TE Miami
    118 Robert Alford CB Atlanta
    119 J. J. Wilcox S Dallas
    120 Tourek Williams DE San Diego
    121 Lavar Edwards DE Tennessee
    122 Ryan Swope WR Arizona
    123 Stansly Maponga DE Atlanta
    124 A.J. Klein ILB Carolina
    125 B.W. Webb CB Dallas
    126 Matt Barkley QB Philadelphia
    127 Barrett Jones OC St. Louis
    128 Joseph Randle RB Dallas
    129 Brennan Williams OT Houston
    130 Cooper Taylor S NY Giants
    131 Khaled Holmes OC Indianapolis
    132 Knile Davis RB Kansas City
    133 Aaron Dobson WR New England
    134 Stepfan Taylor RB Arizona
    135 Samuel Barrington OLB Green Bay
    136 J.C. Tretter OG Green Bay
    137 Christine Michael RB Seattle
    138 Mychal Rivera TE Oakland
    139 Menelik Watson OT Oakland
    140 Keenan Allen WR San Diego
    141 Kapron Lewis-Moore DE Baltimore
    142 Tanner Hawkinson OT Cincinnati
    143 Nick Kasa TE Oakland
    144 Daimion Stafford S Tennessee
    145 Jonathan Meeks S Buffalo
    146 John Boyett S Indianapolis
    147 Shamarko Thomas S Pittsburgh
    148 Joe Kruger DE Philadelphia
    149 Kenjon Barner RB Carolina
    150 Cobi Hamilton WR Cincinnati
    151 Sam Martin K Detroit
    152 Michael Williams TE Detroit
    153 Sanders Commings CB Kansas City
    154 Gavin Escobar TE Dallas
    155 Quinton Patton WR San Francisco
    156 Latavius Murray RB Oakland
    157 Jordan Poyer CB Philadelphia
    158 Brian Schwenke OC Tennessee
    159 Ryan Jensen OG Baltimore
    160 Chris Gragg TE Buffalo
    161 Nico Johnson ILB Kansas City
    162 Caleb Sturgis K Miami
    163 Steve Beauharnais ILB New England
    164 William Campbell DT NY Jets
    165 David Bass DE Oakland
    166 Vinston Painter OT Denver
    167 Michael Mauti ILB Minnesota
    168 Stacy McGee DT Oakland
    169 Tharold Simon CB Seattle
    170 Earl Watford OG Arizona
    171 Joshua Evans S Jacksonville
    172 Jeff Locke P Minnesota
    173 Jeff Baca OG Minnesota
    174 Tommy Bohanon FB NY Jets
    175 Kenny Stills WR New Orleans
    176 Josh Boyd DT Green Bay
    177 Ace Sanders WR Jacksonville
    178 Marquess Wilson WR Chicago
    179 Tavarres King WR Denver
    180 Michael Bowie OT Seattle
    181 Quinton Dial DE San Francisco
    182 Montori Hughes DT Indianapolis
    183 Kyle Juszczyk FB Baltimore
    184 Edmund Kugbila OG Carolina
    185 Reid Fragel OT Cincinnati
    186 DeVonte Holloman OLB Dallas
    187 Theo Riddick RB Detroit
    188 Jelani Jenkins OLB Miami
    189 Steve Williams CB San Diego
    190 Mike James RB Tampa Bay
    191 Mike Gillislee RB Miami
    192 David King DE Philadelphia
    193 Jared Smith DT Seattle
    194 Andre Ellington RB Arizona
    195 Zeke Motta S Atlanta
    196 Aaron Mellette WR Baltimore
    197 Jamoris Slaughter S Cleveland
    198 David Quessenberry OT Houston
    199 Everett Dawkins DT Minnesota
    200 Vince Williams ILB Pittsburgh
    201 Ty Powell OLB Seattle
    202 Cornelius Washington DE Chicago
    203 Kerwynn Williams RB Indianapolis
    204 Kemal Ishmael S Atlanta
    205 Ryan Seymour OG Seattle
    206 Nick Moody OLB San Francisco
    207 Marc Anthony CB Baltimore
    208 Marquise Goodwin WR Buffalo
    209 Michael Buchanan DE New England
    210 Eric Herman OG NY Giants
    211 Chris Harper WR Seattle
    212 Khalid Wooten CB Tennessee
    213 Demetrius McCray CB Jacksonville
    214 Ryan Griffin TE Houston
    215 Garrett Gilkey OG Cleveland
    216 Levine Toilolo TE Atlanta
    217 Eric Kush OC Kansas City
    218 Nicholas Williams DT Pittsburgh
    219 Chris Thompson RB Washington
    220 Jawan Jamison RB Washington
    221 Jeremy Harris CB Jacksonville
    222 Travis Bond OG Minnesota
    223 Rex Burkhead RB Cincinnati
    224 Alan Bonner WR Houston
    225 Denard Robinson WR Jacksonville
    226 Brandon Hepburn ILB Detroit
    227 Steven Means OLB Tampa Bay
    228 Armonty Bryant DE Cleveland
    229 Mike Catapano DE Kansas City
    230 Rufus Johnson DE New Orleans
    231 Braden Wilson FB Kansas City
    232 Carter Bykowski OT San Francisco
    233 Corey Fuller WR Detroit
    234 T.J. Johnson OC Cincinnati
    235 D.C. Jefferson TE Arizona
    236 Don Jones S Miami
    237 Marcus Cooper CB San Francisco
    238 Justin Brown WR Pittsburgh
    239 Charles Johnson WR Green Bay
    240 Landry Jones QB Pittsburgh
    241 Tyler Wilson QB Oakland
    242 Marcus Lattimore RB San Francisco
    243 Luke Willson TE Seattle
    244 Justice Cunningham TE Indianapolis
    245 Kevin Dorsey WR Green Bay
    246 B.J. Daniels QB San Francisco
    247 Mike Glennon QB Tampa Bay
    248 Spencer Ware RB Seattle
    249 Michael Cox RB NY Giants
    250 Brice Butler WR Oakland
    251 Zac Dysert QB Denver
    252 Ryan Nassib QB NY Giants
    253 Sean Renfree QB Atlanta
    254 Brad Sorensen QB San Diego

     

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