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    Props, Props, Props (08/19/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Props, props, props…a little something extra to hold you over until the start of the NFL season. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.



    Will any quarterback break the single season passing yards record in 2014?
    Yes: +300 (3/1)
    No: -400 (4/1)

    Peyton Manning broke Drew Brees' single season passing yards record last year totaling 5,477 yards. Manning became just the fifth player to throw for more than 5,000 yards in a season. We project Manning to be the only quarterback to top the 5,000-yard mark this season, but to be well short of the record.

    Will any player record 2,000 or more receiving yards in 2014?
    Yes: +500 (5/1)
    No: -800 (1/8)

    The Holy Grail for wideouts, no receiver has ever recorded 2,000 or more receiving yards in a season. Calvin Johnson holds the single season record with 1,964 yards set in 2012. We project Megatron to lead the league in receiving with 1,585 yards, well short of the 2,000-yard club.

    Will any player record 2,000 or more rushing yards in 2014?
    Yes: +600
    No: -1000

    Seven running backs have rushed for 2,000 or more yards in a season. Adrian Peterson was the most recent in 2012 coming up just eight yards shy of Eric Dickerson's record of 2,105 rushing yards. No running back tops 1,500 rushing yards in our simulations.

    Will any team go 16-0 in 2014?
    Yes: +3300

    In order to feel confident placing this wager, you would need to believe that there was a three percent or greater chance that one team could complete the perfect regular season. The 2007 Patriots were the first team after the NFL expanded its regular season to sixteen games in 1978 to finish undefeated.

    How many quarterbacks will start all 16 games in the 2014 season?
    Over/Under: 17.5

    Quarterbacks miss games for all kinds of reasons. Alex Smith didn't play in Week 17 because the Chiefs were resting their starters. Robert Griffin III was inactive for the final three games of the season, not because of health but rather a coaching decision. Last season fifteen teams used at least two starting quarterbacks and five used three or more signal callers. Only seventeen quarterbacks started all sixteen regular season games.

    Will Peyton Manning lead the league in passing yards, win the MVP and Broncos win the Super Bowl?
    Yes: +2500

    Manning is projected to lead the league in passing and the Broncos are the most likely Super Bowl Champions. You would need four percent confidence that all three events were to happen in order to feel comfortable placing this wager.

    Will both the Jaguars and Raiders make the playoffs?
    Yes: +6600

    The Jags have a 5.9 percent chance of making the playoffs; the Raiders have a 4.0 percent chance of reaching the postseason. The combined odds of both teams making the playoffs together, the first time this has happened, a mere 0.2 percent. There is no value in placing this wager as you would need 1.5 percent (1/(1+66)) confidence in order to place the bet.

    Will both the Broncos and Seahawks miss the playoffs?
    Yes: +1400

    Denver is our most likely playoff participant reaching the postseason 94.2 percent of the time. The Seahawks are the third most likely playoff team. The odds that the last two Super Bowl participants both miss the playoffs are a scant 0.86 percent. There is no value in placing this bet at 14/1 odds.


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