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ResultsFinder Update (6/4/12)

By Paul Bessire and PredictionMachine.com Research Manager, John Ewing
By Paul Bessire

The ResultsFinder, as we have renamed our "Trendfinder" ("trend is  not necessarily the appropriate word and, in our world, alludes to something that is more misleading than helpful), is our transparent tool for our anyone to track the success of teams in certain situations as well as PredictionMachine.com’s success in straight-up, against-the-spread, money-line and over/under plays. John Ewing, the site's Manager of Research and Analytics (also a new and more appropriate title), follows up on mid-May's commentary on transparency and baseball performance, by leveraging the ResultsFinder to review the entire month of May.

Below we provide the results for each MLB team in straight-up (SU), money-line (ML), and over/under (O/U) thus far in the season (as of games through June 2). For the purposes of this article, we are looking at all pick information - whether the pick is playable, half-bet, normal or otherwise. In future weeks, we will zero in on more specific types of plays (with the recent launch of half-bets and the strategies discussed in many previous entries of this blog, half-bet and normal plays are where our performance should be - and are - best) and the profitability associated with them. Also, obviously some more context is lost with the picks below by reporting percentages. Most O/U picks are at -110 odds (or something generally close to that), while, given the nature of the odds and certain situations in MLB, ML picks could easily be very profitable at accuracy levels below 50% (and vice versa). For now, all situations can be reviewed in the ResultsFinder

Last month we called out two teams, the Rangers (a success) and the Red Sox (an opportunity). As promised, let's see how we did at maintaining our success and improving upon our opportunity.

Texas Rangers

In last month’s article, through 33 games: SU - 63.6%, ML - 60.6% and O/U 66.7%. Through 52 games: SU - 57.7%, ML - 51.9%, and O/U - 56%. PredictionMachine.com’s success of picking games involving the Rangers has regressed as has the Rangers' success in winning games. After a blistering 17-6 start to the season, the Rangers went 14-14 in May. They lost significant ground to the Los Angeles Angels as noted in May’s Three Up, Three Down article.

Boston Red Sox

In last month’s article, through 33 games: SU - 36.4%, ML - 42.4% and O/U - 45.5%. Through 53 games: SU - 43.4%, ML - 49.1%, and O/U - 43.4%. We are pleased to see a better performance when picking games involving the Red Sox. Specifically, we see a notable increase in SU and ML Win%. These results are still not where we would like to see them, but we are always working to improve our records.

In addition to the results for each MLB team in straight-up (SU), money-line (ML) and over/under (O/U) thus far in the season (as of June 2), we have also provided a breakdown by month for each team. You can see each team’s win percentages, broken into their respective divisions.

See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

It is important to remember when using the ResultsFinder that sample size plays a key role in drawing conclusions from the data. You can place a large number of filters on a search so that the win percentage is 100% but the number of games that meet the criteria is small. Trying to draw conclusions from a sample of two or three games can be dangerous. Please keep this in mind as you use the ResultsFinder.

 

 

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10/27/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of October 20 - 26, one could find that highlighted, "normal" or better MLB picks went 2-0 to start the World Series and are now 31-11 (74% ML, O/U and RL) all-time. A normal $50 player using our play value recommendations would be +$747 during this MLB postseason.

In football, halftime picks were particularly strong. In Week 8 for the NFL, "normal" or better (and there are better) halftime picks went 7-1 (88% ATS and O/U). Combined NFL Week 8 and College Football Week 9 "normal" or better halftime picks hit 64% (ATS and O/U) and generated a profit of +$950 for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations. Also, with a Central Michigan (-4) victory over Buffalo, 20-14, College Football Locks of the Week have covered in four straight weeks helping football Locks of the Week to a 103-59 (64% ATS) record all-time.

And with the season starting this week, highlighted, "normal" or better Over/Under Season Win Total Picks in the NBA are 24-13 (65% O/U) all-time. Meanwhile, for the 2013-14 NBA season, "normal" or better full game and halftime picks generated a $4,311 profit for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations, including hitting 59% on normal over/under plays.

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