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    ResultsFinder Update (6/4/12)

    By Paul Bessire and PredictionMachine.com Research Manager, John Ewing
    By Paul Bessire

    The ResultsFinder, as we have renamed our "Trendfinder" ("trend is  not necessarily the appropriate word and, in our world, alludes to something that is more misleading than helpful), is our transparent tool for our anyone to track the success of teams in certain situations as well as PredictionMachine.com’s success in straight-up, against-the-spread, money-line and over/under plays. John Ewing, the site's Manager of Research and Analytics (also a new and more appropriate title), follows up on mid-May's commentary on transparency and baseball performance, by leveraging the ResultsFinder to review the entire month of May.

    Below we provide the results for each MLB team in straight-up (SU), money-line (ML), and over/under (O/U) thus far in the season (as of games through June 2). For the purposes of this article, we are looking at all pick information - whether the pick is playable, half-bet, normal or otherwise. In future weeks, we will zero in on more specific types of plays (with the recent launch of half-bets and the strategies discussed in many previous entries of this blog, half-bet and normal plays are where our performance should be - and are - best) and the profitability associated with them. Also, obviously some more context is lost with the picks below by reporting percentages. Most O/U picks are at -110 odds (or something generally close to that), while, given the nature of the odds and certain situations in MLB, ML picks could easily be very profitable at accuracy levels below 50% (and vice versa). For now, all situations can be reviewed in the ResultsFinder

    Last month we called out two teams, the Rangers (a success) and the Red Sox (an opportunity). As promised, let's see how we did at maintaining our success and improving upon our opportunity.

    Texas Rangers

    In last month’s article, through 33 games: SU - 63.6%, ML - 60.6% and O/U 66.7%. Through 52 games: SU - 57.7%, ML - 51.9%, and O/U - 56%. PredictionMachine.com’s success of picking games involving the Rangers has regressed as has the Rangers' success in winning games. After a blistering 17-6 start to the season, the Rangers went 14-14 in May. They lost significant ground to the Los Angeles Angels as noted in May’s Three Up, Three Down article.

    Boston Red Sox

    In last month’s article, through 33 games: SU - 36.4%, ML - 42.4% and O/U - 45.5%. Through 53 games: SU - 43.4%, ML - 49.1%, and O/U - 43.4%. We are pleased to see a better performance when picking games involving the Red Sox. Specifically, we see a notable increase in SU and ML Win%. These results are still not where we would like to see them, but we are always working to improve our records.

    In addition to the results for each MLB team in straight-up (SU), money-line (ML) and over/under (O/U) thus far in the season (as of June 2), we have also provided a breakdown by month for each team. You can see each team’s win percentages, broken into their respective divisions.

    See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

    See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

    See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

    See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

    See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

    See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

    See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

    It is important to remember when using the ResultsFinder that sample size plays a key role in drawing conclusions from the data. You can place a large number of filters on a search so that the win percentage is 100% but the number of games that meet the criteria is small. Trying to draw conclusions from a sample of two or three games can be dangerous. Please keep this in mind as you use the ResultsFinder.

     

     

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    6/28/2015 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the week of June 21st-27th, one could find that all playable MLB money-lines and run-lines went 63-42 (60% ML and RL). Given the payouts associated with those plays, that generated a return of +$459 for the week for a normal $50 player using our play value recommendations.

    And, as we head into July, with just a few weeks before NFL and college football camps opening, it's worth noting a couple football highlights. Strong opinions in college football have consistently generated great returns, with the Locks of the Week on the site going 53-24 (69% ATS) over five seasons (24-8, 75% ATS in the last two seasons) and featured, "normal" or better totals (greater than 57% confidence in the pick) going 348-255 (58% O/U) all-time.

    Picking every NFL game over five years, playable against-the-spread picks are 591-487 (55% ATS) on the site (including better than 57% ATS in 2013 and .500 or better results every week in 2014 from Week 7 through the Conference Championship games).

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