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    ResultsFinder Update (6/4/12)

    By Paul Bessire and PredictionMachine.com Research Manager, John Ewing
    By Paul Bessire

    The ResultsFinder, as we have renamed our "Trendfinder" ("trend is  not necessarily the appropriate word and, in our world, alludes to something that is more misleading than helpful), is our transparent tool for our anyone to track the success of teams in certain situations as well as PredictionMachine.com’s success in straight-up, against-the-spread, money-line and over/under plays. John Ewing, the site's Manager of Research and Analytics (also a new and more appropriate title), follows up on mid-May's commentary on transparency and baseball performance, by leveraging the ResultsFinder to review the entire month of May.

    Below we provide the results for each MLB team in straight-up (SU), money-line (ML), and over/under (O/U) thus far in the season (as of games through June 2). For the purposes of this article, we are looking at all pick information - whether the pick is playable, half-bet, normal or otherwise. In future weeks, we will zero in on more specific types of plays (with the recent launch of half-bets and the strategies discussed in many previous entries of this blog, half-bet and normal plays are where our performance should be - and are - best) and the profitability associated with them. Also, obviously some more context is lost with the picks below by reporting percentages. Most O/U picks are at -110 odds (or something generally close to that), while, given the nature of the odds and certain situations in MLB, ML picks could easily be very profitable at accuracy levels below 50% (and vice versa). For now, all situations can be reviewed in the ResultsFinder

    Last month we called out two teams, the Rangers (a success) and the Red Sox (an opportunity). As promised, let's see how we did at maintaining our success and improving upon our opportunity.

    Texas Rangers

    In last month’s article, through 33 games: SU - 63.6%, ML - 60.6% and O/U 66.7%. Through 52 games: SU - 57.7%, ML - 51.9%, and O/U - 56%. PredictionMachine.com’s success of picking games involving the Rangers has regressed as has the Rangers' success in winning games. After a blistering 17-6 start to the season, the Rangers went 14-14 in May. They lost significant ground to the Los Angeles Angels as noted in May’s Three Up, Three Down article.

    Boston Red Sox

    In last month’s article, through 33 games: SU - 36.4%, ML - 42.4% and O/U - 45.5%. Through 53 games: SU - 43.4%, ML - 49.1%, and O/U - 43.4%. We are pleased to see a better performance when picking games involving the Red Sox. Specifically, we see a notable increase in SU and ML Win%. These results are still not where we would like to see them, but we are always working to improve our records.

    In addition to the results for each MLB team in straight-up (SU), money-line (ML) and over/under (O/U) thus far in the season (as of June 2), we have also provided a breakdown by month for each team. You can see each team’s win percentages, broken into their respective divisions.

    See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

    See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

    See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

    See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

    See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

    See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

    See: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central and NL West

    It is important to remember when using the ResultsFinder that sample size plays a key role in drawing conclusions from the data. You can place a large number of filters on a search so that the win percentage is 100% but the number of games that meet the criteria is small. Trying to draw conclusions from a sample of two or three games can be dangerous. Please keep this in mind as you use the ResultsFinder.

     

     

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    11/24/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of November 17th - 23rd, one could find that all highlighted college football "normal" or better plays went 6-3 (67% ATS and O/U), highlighted by the Lock of the Week, Appalachian State (+10 vs. LA-Lafayette), winning outright, 35-16, to cover by four touchdowns. The Lock of the Week has won seven of the last eight weeks and is 22-7 (77% ATS) in the last two seasons. Against-the-spread, "normal" or better halftime plays in college football also were solid going 4-2 (67% ATS).

    While there have only been three "normal" NFL ATS full game picks in the last two weeks, normal or better NFL against-the-spread halftimes have provided additional value by going 6-1 (86% ATS) in Week 11 and Week 12. Over the last six weeks, all playable full game against-the-spread NFL picks are 39-26 (60% ATS). In that same stretch, "normal or better halftime picks in the NFL are 17-8 (68% ATS). All halftime picks are free for the week!

    Finally, in the NBA, all "normal" or better picks went 5-3 (63% ATS and O/U). And, on the ice, all normal NHL plays stayed strong once again returning a profit for the fourth straight week. In the last four weeks, all normal or better NHL picks are 66-44 (60% ML, O/U and PL).

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