The 2023 NFL season is only 15 days away and as you catch up on household chores and warn loved ones of your lack of availability on Sundays, here is some NFL betting advice.
1.) Be Intentional with Futures Bets – Some bettors forget that futures markets are constantly updating throughout the season. Why rush to put in a futures bet now? If you like a team in the futures market, take a look at their first 5 games and consider how tough the schedule is. If it’s a particularly brutal early schedule, maybe that team gets off to a slow start and you can bet them at a better price several weeks into the season. This approach also helps you avoid throwing your money away on a team that lost a star player to injury in the first few weeks.
2.) Have Multiple Outlets – The ability to shop around this time of year is crucial. For instance, a few days ago several sportsbooks still had the Steelers at +3, while several others had them at +2.5. If you only have one betting outlet, you’re not always getting the best price, and long-term, that’s going to chip away at your bottom dollar.
Furthermore, some sportsbooks offer better odds on teasers. Some books don’t allow you to tease preseason games. Some offer same-game parlays. To have the best variety of betting options, you should have multiple outlets.
3.) Limit Preseason Bets – Unless you’re a professional or have spent hours reading copy from local beat writers, I don’t recommend betting this last week of preseason games. If you waste a chunk of your money before Week 1 starts, you’re going to feel silly for blowing it on meaningless games. It’s tempting to score a quick win or two before the season starts so you have more ammo for Week 1, but avoid that temptation.
4.) Don’t Live Bet Between Plays – If you’re live betting between plays, instead of during commercials or long breaks in the action, you may be getting ripped off. For more information about this and general live betting Do’s and Don’ts, click here.
5.) Limit Parlays – You’ve probably heard me say this before and it’s a drum I’ll never stop beating because it’s just too important. Parlays are a lot of fun, but they’re not conducive to long-term betting success. Parlays are the junk food of sports betting.
6.) Pace Yourself – Remember Week 1 is filled with uncertainty and betting 100% of your budget Week 1 is a recipe for heartbreak. Many professional bettors don’t bet more than 3% of their bankroll on each game and this is particularly good advice early in the NFL season.
7.) Consider Coaching Matchups – One team may have a superior roster, but don’t overlook the importance of offensive and defensive coordinators matching up against each other. It’s easy to research how opposing coordinators and head coaches have done vs. each other, so make sure that’s included in your assessment of each game. I enjoy fading teams with new offensive and defensive coordinator early in the season as it sometimes takes time for players to gel in a new system. Tennessee’s Mike Vrabel and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin are notorious for finding ways to win with mediocre talent. For a breakdown of each coach’s Week 1 performance, click here.
