Are you looking to bet on the NFL during this season? You should have an idea what you’re getting into. Here is a look at the type of bets you might play, and one tip you should definitely take notice of as you’re making your NFL betting picks.
How do NFL moneyline odds work?
NFL moneylines are simple to bet on for those new to the game. You’re wagering on which team is going to win the game, and that’s it. Moneyline odds vary quite a bit depending on the perceived separation in talent between two clubs in a matchup.
For example, you might see New England at -165 against Buffalo at +135. The minus sign indicates the Patriots are the favorites in this matchup, and you would have to bet $165 to win $100 on the Pats. On the other side, you would have to bet $100 on the Bills to win $135 as the underdogs, as shown by the plus sign.
Keep in mind, you don’t have to bet these amounts. This is just a template for the ratio you would see at your sportsbook. If you wanted to bet $25 on the Patriots, you would win $40 if they come out on top against the Bills. If you had bet $25 on the Bills, you would win $58.
How do NFL point spreads work?
Point spread betting is the most popular way to bet on NFL games. Here, you are betting on the margin of victory more rather than who will win the game outright.
Again, take New England and Buffalo. New England might be favored by 6.5 points to beat Buffalo. That means if you take New England, they would have to win by seven points or more; they would be shown as -6.5 (remember, the minus sign denotes the favorite). A Buffalo spread bettor wins his wager if the Bills win the game or if they lose by six or fewer points.
Often, you will see an NFL point spread with a half-point, as in the example above. Sportsbooks like to throw in the half-point to make sure there is a winner and pushes are avoided. A push is when the point differential in the final score mirrors the oddsmakers’ point spread.
Imagine the Green Bay Packers are 6-point home favorites against the Chicago Bears and the game finishes 23-17 in favor of the Packers. Oddsmakers would have to return funds to all customers who bet on this game.
Keep an eye out for numbers like three or seven when you bet on the NFL. These numbers, of course, are the values of a field goal and a touchdown with a one-point conversion. A seven-point differential is the most common final score in NFL games and three-point games are the second most common. It’s important to keep this in mind when betting on pro football.
Most sportsbooks like to have these numbers as their spread, as some players will buy an extra half-point either way to get off that number. That is why is good to shop around for lines that are not on those numbers, or wait to see if the sportsbook get off the number, depending on how much money is coming in on either side.
The point spread is sometimes abandoned by sportsbooks if the oddsmakers see the game as a complete coin toss. A game is called a pick or pick’em if there are even odds for both sides to win a game.
Are NFL Totals and Over/Under bets the same thing?
NFL total and Over/Under betting are one and the same. A total refers to the total points scored in a game. Sportsbooks set a number and their customers can either bet on the Over or Under.
For example, a total between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants might be set at 47. An Over bettor will cash their wager if the final score goes above 47 points whereas the Under bettor hits a winner if the game score finishes with 46 or fewer points.
It’s good to look at the offensive and defensive rankings and stats of each team. This will help you make an educated Over/Under pick.
What are future odds and how to they apply to NFL betting?
A futures bet is a wager tied to a future event rather than one for the upcoming weekend. NFL future bets are most commonly associated with Super Bowl odds, but NFL futures can also be tied to odds to win a conference or even a division.
For example, you might see the Pittsburgh Steelers at +1000 ($100 to win $1000) to win the Super Bowl before the start of the season. If they perform well early on, that number might drop to +500 ($100 to win $500) by Week 4 of the campaign. If you got them at +1000 and they go on to win the Super Bowl, you’ll be sitting pretty.
Season win totals are another popular form of NFL futures betting. Oddsmakers set projected win total numbers for each team in the league and bettors can either bet the Over or the Under on this number. The Chicago Bears’ win total might be set at 7.5 and the Over would cash if the Bears finish with eight or more wins at season’s end while the Under would win if the Monsters of Midway went 7-9 or worse.
What are NFL prop bets?
NFL prop or proposition betting has to do with a bet that doesn’t rely on the outcome of the game itself. Rather, it has more to do with a specific stat that the sportsbook thinks could happen, and it often comes in the form of a Over/Under bet.
Sportsbook often post Over/Under numbers on yardage totals for key offensive players, as well as points scored by the end of a given quarter or half. Let’s pretend Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers are playing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. NFL oddsmakers might set Newton’s TD pass total at 1.5 and his passing yardage total at 250. Again, bettors can either take the Over or the Under on this number.
There are also team prop bets. These wagers are the same premise as player props only this time bettors are wagering on total team stats rather than those of singular players. You might be able to bet on how many penalties Buffalo will take against New England, and the total might be 6.5. Again, you are betting on the Over or under for that number.
Prop betting really picks up around Super Bowl time, which is when the sportsbooks really bring their wackiest props out. You can bet on the length of the national anthem, or which song the performer in question will start their set with at halftime. You can bet on which color of Gatorade the winning head coach will be showered with. You name it: at the Super Bowl, you can probably bet on it.
What is the Difference Between Parlays and Teasers?
Parlays and teasers both involve your bet being tied to the outcome of more than one game or event. First, let’s start with parlays. This type of wager means you are betting on at least two outcomes with improved payout odds. Public bettors often like combining multiple large moneyline favorites on one parlay ticket.
On a given Sunday, you might take the Patriots (-700), the Vikings (-375) and the Ravens (-250) on one parlay ticket. If each of those three teams win, you cash your ticket with even odds (risk $100 to win $100).
You can do the same thing only with pointspreads involved rather than moneylines. It’s would require each team on your ticket covering the spread rather than just winning outright but the payout odds would be much higher.
Also, you don’t even have to stick to the NFL. You can parlay an NFL game with an NHL matchup, and then throw in an NBA game for good measure. But once again, you have to hit on all three in order to win your bet.
Teasers are from the same family as parlays but with a twist. A teaser bet is a parlay with pointspreads where books change the line in your favor at the cost of a lower payout. You can get in 6, 6.5 or 7 points.
For this example, let’s imagine the New York Giants are 4-point favorites, the New Orleans Saints are 3-point underdogs and the Denver Broncos are 13-point faves. A 7-point teaser would change the Giants to 3-point dogs, the Saints would become 10-point underdogs and the Broncos would now be 6-point chalk. Just like parlays, all of these teams must cover the new spreads for you to cash your teaser ticket.
What Causes Line Movements?
Now that you know what type of wagers you can make when you bet on the NFL, you can prepare for what might be the most important thing to know: line movements. The line that you see on Monday might not be the one you get on Sunday, and these movements can be caused by a number of factors.
Injuries are probably the No. 1 factor to consider when you see a line move in the NFL. Specifically, when there is an injury to a starting quarterback, and possibly a running back or a wide receiver (but more often than not, it is a quarterback). An injury to a Pro Bowl-level QB might move a line by as much as a touchdown if the replacement quarterback is unproven.
The weather can impact line movement. Rain, snow and/or wind will often move totals down. The logic here is it gets harder to score if extreme weather conditions are in play.
A major reason that the line moves when you bet on the NFL might not even have to do with football. The sportsbooks are trying to get equal money to come in on both sides, so they might adjust the line a little to entice players. If a slew of money is coming in on New England at -6.5, the sportsbooks might move it to -5.5 or -6 to persuade players to bet on Buffalo.
Be Informed When You Bet On The NFL
This seems like a lot of information, and it is. But the final tip is that you have to be informed when you are making your NFL betting picks. You can take a flier in a pinch if you don’t have time, but if you want to give yourself a fighting chance, take in all the information you can get before you make your NFL picks.